7. Impacts on people, society and the economy

This section examines how changes in the environment are impacting our lives, in three areas. 

The first part of this section looks at how our health and quality of life are deeply rooted in the environment. A healthy environment provides clean air, water, food and spaces for recreation, all of which support physical and mental well-being. Conversely, environmental degradation – such as pollution, biodiversity loss and climate change – can harm health. It contributes to respiratory illnesses, heat-related conditions, waterborne diseases, and mental health challenges stemming from the loss of natural spaces or increased environmental stresses.  

The second part looks at people’s connection to place, which is also intertwined with nature. The environment shapes cultural values, traditions and a sense of identity. It fosters strong bonds between communities and the landscapes they inhabit. Healthy ecosystems sustain these connections, supporting cultural practices and community resilience. 

The third part looks at how our homes and livelihoods depend on the services provided by nature. Ecosystems play a critical role in food production, water availability and energy generation, creating the foundation for social and economic stability. However, challenges such as biodiversity loss and climate change (including severe weather events) pose risks to our homes and jobs and to the broader natural and built environment that supports them. 

Addressing these interconnected challenges is vital for our lives and the resilience of the environment. 

Access to nutritious food, fresh air and safe drinking water is fundamental to our health and quality of life. These essential needs depend on a healthy environment, including fertile soil, clean air and unpolluted water. Degradation of the environment, climate change and extreme weather events pose significant threats to human health, increasing risks such as food insecurity, poor air quality and contaminated water.  

In contrast, a healthy environment enhances the resilience of food systems, supports natural air filtration and ensures water infrastructure can withstand the challenges of climate change and extreme weather. 

Our health and vulnerability are also shaped by who we are and where we live. Urban areas, where many of us live, benefit from well-functioning ecosystems that can provide critical services. However, environmental drivers and pressures increasingly threaten these ecosystems. Emerging contaminants, such as microplastics, add another layer of risk to human health, infiltrating food, air and water, though their full impact remains poorly understood. 

This subsection focuses on two aspects of human health: access to healthy food and clean air; and how climate change amplifies health risks. Both aspects highlight the profound connection between environmental health and overall quality of life. 

Our food, water and air are impacted by the state of the environment, with consequences for our health 

Access to affordable and nutritious food is vulnerable to global disruptions and extreme events. 

• Access to affordable and nutritionally dense food relies on a resilient and stable food system. This includes, among other things, access to reliable sources of water, and stable supply chains and distribution infrastructure. These are at risk from disruptors such as pandemics, international wars, climate change, sea-level rise, drought and other extreme weather events that can cause instability and price fluctuations. Changes in food prices can influence people’s choices towards buying less healthy but more affordable products. This affects our health, particularly in lower socio-economic communities, rural communities and children (Resilience to Nature’s Challenges, 2024; Strom et al, 2024; Vatsa & Renwick, 2024). 
• Outdoor horticulture, including fruit and vegetable growing, relies on a finite supply of highly productive land that is becoming less available due to urban development (see section 2: Land). This constrains this sector’s ability to adapt to other pressures, threatening diverse supply of vegetables for domestic use and access to healthy diets (Curran-Cournane & Rush, 2021; Curran-Cournane et al, 2021a; Davis et al, 2023; Greenhalgh et al, 2017; MPI, 2019b). 

The water we drink can carry diseases.  

• Since 1980, at least 49 drinking water illness outbreaks have been reported in New Zealand (DPMC, 2024). This includes the 2016 campylobacteriosis outbreak in Havelock North, which made an estimated 6,000 to 8,000 people ill, led to 42 hospitalisations and contributed to at least four deaths (Gilpin et al, 2020). 
• A cryptosporidiosis outbreak occurred in Queenstown in September 2023, causing illness in at least 72 people and requiring three hospitalisations. Human faecal contamination was considered the most likely cause of the outbreak (Baker et al, 2023; Grout et al, 2024). 
• Rural communities face a higher risk of waterborne disease. Compared with the urban population, the proportion of the rural population reporting cryptosporidiosis is four to six times larger, and for reporting campylobacteriosis, two to four times larger. Young children and people living in deprived areas are also at greater risk of waterborne disease (EHINZ, 2024a). 

Contaminated water in lakes, waterways and coastal waters used for recreation and food gathering can lead to disease and illness. 

• Regional councils monitor popular swimming sites to assess their health risk for swimming and food gathering. Faecal contamination from humans and animals is a common reason why exposure to water can become unhealthy, as it can cause infections and gastroenteritis (LAWA, 2022). Some sites are under harvest bans because food harvested is not safe to eat (Clough, 2013; Morrison et al, 2023; van Hamelsveld et al, 2023). 
• In 2023 there were 388 notifiable illness cases of campylobacteriosis, 135 of giardiasis, 106 of cryptosporidiosis, 102 of salmonellosis and 138 of Escherichia coli infection, for cases where people reported contact with recreational water (river, lake or sea) (ESR, 2025). 
• Exposure to freshwater with high levels of toxic algae can cause illnesses in humans, including nausea, diarrhoea and, in extreme cases, liver damage, and can also kill dogs (LAWA, 2023a). Toxic algae are generally only present at low levels in New Zealand’s freshwater environments, but blooms occur more frequently in nutrient-rich waters and during summer when there are higher temperatures, more sunlight and lower rainfall (BPAC, 2020; LAWA, 2023a; Puddick et al, 2022). 

Breathing polluted air can cause serious health issues for thousands of people each year and lead to high social costs. 

• The health impacts and social costs from human-made air pollution are higher than previously thought, based on our growing understanding of the extensive health and social damage caused by motor vehicle pollution (Kuschel et al, 2022).  
• In 2019, it is estimated that human-made air pollution in the form of fine particulate matter PM_2.5 (airborne particles less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter) and nitrous oxide (NO₂) was a factor in 3,239 premature deaths, 13,237 hospitalisations, 12,653 cases of childhood asthma and over 1.771 million restricted activity days. It is estimated that air pollution from motor vehicles was associated with 71 percent of these hospitalisations and 69 percent of premature deaths. Social costs resulting from the health impacts associated with air pollution were estimated at $15.3 billion for the year 2019, with 69 percent of these costs associated with air pollution from motor vehicles (Metcalfe & Kuschel, 2023; see Our air 2024). 
• The estimated health impacts associated with human-made air pollution (PM_2.5 and NO₂) increased between 2006 and 2016 due to population growth and rising NO₂ exposure. Premature deaths associated with NO₂ exposure from motor vehicle emissions increased 28 percent, and hospitalisations increased 39 percent. However, health impacts from PM_2.5 exposure decreased during this period, likely due to reduced emissions from domestic fires (see indicator: Human health impacts of PM_2.5 and NO₂ and Technical annex). 
• The health risks from air pollution are higher for some people and communities than for others. Children, the elderly, pregnant people, and those with pre-existing cardiovascular or respiratory disease are more vulnerable (Peled, 2011). People in the most socio-economically deprived areas are exposed to more air pollution, and suffer greater health impacts as a result, than those in the least deprived areas (Telfar-Barnard & Zhang, 2021; Wickham et al, 2023). 
• Plants in urban green spaces can filter pollution from the air, but these spaces are under pressure from development. It is estimated that each year, trees in Auckland alone remove 1,230 tonnes of NO₂, 1,990 tonnes of ground-level ozone and 1,320 tonnes of particulate matter (PCE, 2023). 

A changing climate can pose risks to our physical and mental health 

Climate change could further jeopardise access to healthy food and water. 

• Food production in New Zealand often concentrates specific industries in certain regions, making the food system more vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events in those areas (Renwick, 2023; Resilience to Nature’s Challenges, 2024). For example, Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland floods in 2023 disrupted road access, and damaged infrastructure and crops (eg, vegetables and orchards), in key production areas in the North Island (The Treasury, 2023; Vatsa & Renwick, 2024). This led to shortages of specific foods and a temporary increase in prices for some goods and services, adding to the rising cost of living (MFAT, 2023b; The Treasury, 2023).  
• Climate change will have a negative impact on crop productivity around the world, making it more difficult to access a variety of food – a fundamental need, especially for children (Binns et al, 2021). 
• Drinking water supply is at risk from climate change. Effects will be localised, with drought posing a risk to reservoir and catchment yield for drinking water supply, and increasing water demand from other uses (Kamish et al, 2020; MfE, 2020). 
• There are existing health risks for rural communities and marae who rely on water from untreated systems, such as tank water and groundwater wells in intensively farmed areas. This risk can increase with extreme rainfall events and higher temperatures through contaminated drinking water (Awatere et al, 2021; Teen, 2024). 

Higher temperatures and heatwaves could lead to growing health impacts.  

• Higher temperatures and heat waves can cause illness and worsen chronic health conditions. Some people, including babies, infants, older people and people working outside, are more at risk than others. Higher temperatures have also been associated with an increased incidence of assaults (EHINZ, 2022; Lai et al, 2024; Royal Society Te Apārangi, 2017; Stevens et al, 2019). 
• International evidence shows that extreme heat poses an increasing risk of mortality and morbidity with climate change, particularly for the elderly and those with cardiovascular disease. There is currently a lack of data for this connection in New Zealand (Chaseling et al, 2023). 
• Our growing urban areas produce, absorb and retain more heat than rural and natural areas. This will make them even hotter as temperatures rise (IPCC, 2021). Urban heat can stress infrastructure and ecosystems and may exacerbate the health impacts of heat in cities. Urban forests and green space help to lower temperatures through transpiration and providing shade, reducing this urban heat island effect (PCE, 2023; Toi Te Ora Public Health, 2024). 

Climate change could amplify the risk of disease. 

• Allergic rhinitis, or hay fever, is commonly caused by windborne pollen. While data are limited, one study estimated that it affects 35 to 40 percent of those aged 20–44 years in New Zealand, and this number is increasing (Newnham, 2017, 2021). Warmer temperatures and higher carbon dioxide concentrations could increase the suitable growing areas of major pollen-producing species, so that they produce more pollen for longer (Damialis et al, 2021; Newnham, 2021). Recent monitoring and research indicate that our high pollen count days have increased by 75 percent over the last three decades (RNZ, 2024). 
• Thunderstorm asthma occurs when a thunderstorm coincides with a significant amount of pollen in the air, causing immediate asthma flare-ups. Emerging evidence indicates that these events are likely to increase because of climate change (D’Amato et al, 2021) and could possibly occur in New Zealand (Asthma Foundation NZ, 2021; Sabih et al, 2020; Stewart et al, 2022). 
• Smoke from wildfires has adverse physical and mental health effects, which children and people with asthma are particularly vulnerable to (Aguilera et al, 2021; McDonald et al, 2023). 
• As our climate becomes increasingly suitable for insects such as mosquitos, there is an increasing risk that insect-spread viruses like the Zika virus and dengue fever will be introduced from overseas and locally transmitted (Ammar et al, 2021). 
• Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are linked to a higher chance of waterborne disease outbreaks, which could become more frequent with climate change (Grout et al, 2022, 2024; Pourzand et al, 2023). Regions experiencing increased extreme rainfall may face greater risks of waterborne diseases, particularly through contaminated water supplies (Hales, 2019; Lai et al, 2020). 

Climate change and extreme weather could harm mental health, affecting some groups more than others. 

• Some population groups will be more affected by climate change health impacts than others, and existing health and social system inequities will be exacerbated by climate change. The already disadvantaged, including young, elderly, disabled and lower-income communities, people living in poverty, and Māori and Pasifika communities, will be disproportionately affected (Bennett et al, 2014; EHINZ, nd-b; EHINZ, 2024; Jones et al, 2014; Masters-Awatere et al, 2023). 
• With an increasing number of extreme events, a rise in related health and wellbeing effects is expected, including injuries and deaths, displacement, and significant damage to community infrastructure. Vulnerable groups including children, elderly and disabled will be particularly at risk (Grout et al, 2022; Mason et al, 2021). 
• Climate anxiety, including feelings of hopelessness and frustration, particularly affects some groups. Young people face an uncertain future, and Pacific communities have connections to small island countries susceptible to climate-induced displacement (Burkett, 2011; Campbell, 2010; Fritze et al, 2008; Health Navigator New Zealand, 2022; McBride, 2022; Tiatia-Seath et al, 2020). 
• Emerging evidence indicates that children and young people are showing increasing levels of mental distress due to climate change, and research suggests they will be disproportionately burdened by the impacts of climate change (Gislason et al, 2021; Ma et al, 2022). 
• Severe weather events such as extreme rainfall, drought, wildfires and floods have been linked to elevated levels of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (Ministerial Inquiry into Land Use in Tairāwhiti and Wairoa, 2023). People with pre-existing mental health conditions are at higher risk, as exposure to these events can worsen mental health and lead to higher mortality, with increased psychiatric hospitalisations and suicide rates (Charlson et al, 2021). 
• Extreme weather events have long-term health and wellbeing implications for individuals and entire communities. Increased frequency of severe events can lead to exhaustion and emotional tolls on individuals and communities (Grout et al, 2022; Jones et al, 2023; Ministerial Inquiry into Land Use in Tairāwhiti and Wairoa, 2023). 

The natural beauty of our environment, including mountains, rivers and coasts, is central to our culture and national identity.  

As individuals, we each connect to the environment in our own way and for different reasons – including walking, swimming and gathering food. As communities, we also have different ways of enjoying our local environment – spending time in city parks, along rivers or at beaches. As the environment changes, these connections change, whether those changes are sudden and we notice them, or are more gradual and not immediately obvious.  

These changes require knowledge adaptation, and affect mātauranga Māori and associated practices such as traditional food-gathering (mahinga kai) and using plant medicines (rongoā rākau). We also have intergenerational connections to the environment. Just as the way that those before us lived with the landscape influences the current state of the environment and how it affects society today, so will future generations be affected by the way that we live with the environment today. 

Access to a healthy environment is important for maintaining our ties with nature 

Access to urban greenspaces is important to stay connected to nature. 

• Spending time in urban green spaces, and in or near rivers and lakes can support good mental health – reducing fatigue and stress, improving immune system function, lowering blood pressure and providing space for physical activities (Gascon et al, 2017; MfE, 2022; Nutsford et al, 2013; Pasanen et al, 2019; Tzoulas et al, 2007; White et al, 2020). 
• Lower-income communities have less access to urban green spaces and their benefits, which can reduce the positive impact of green spaces on human health (Blaschke et al, 2024; Regional Public Health, 2010; Zhang et al, 2024). 
• The accessibility of urban green spaces for adolescents is associated with reductions in stress, substance problems and depressive symptoms, as well as with improvements in mental health, behaviour and cognitive development (Hobbs et al, 2023; Mavoa et al, 2019; McCormick, 2017; Tzoulas et al, 2007). This association is important as one-third of New Zealand’s adolescents aged 15 to 17 years have reported difficulties in everyday activities such as communicating and social interaction, due to mental illness (HPA, 2020). 

Environmental degradation is affecting people’s ability to connect with nature. 

• Many New Zealanders engage in outdoor recreation, and we get important cultural and health benefits from activities such as walking, swimming, waka ama, surfing, kayaking, fishing and gathering shellfish. It can impair our communities’ engagement and connection with the environment if these activities cannot be enjoyed safely (see Environment Aotearoa 2022). 
• Our native ecosystems and unique wildlife provide opportunities for recreation. For many New Zealanders, having access to nature is a major advantage of living here, with around one in two visiting protected areas such as parks and beaches each month over the 2023/24 summer (DOC, 2021a, 2024b).  
• A degraded environment affects connection to the land (whenua) for some Māori, and the foundation of tūrangawaewae (the land base, a place of belonging, standing and identity). This poses a risk to their cultural functioning capacity, and impacts quality of life (Awatere et al, 2021; Harmsworth & Awatere, 2013; Hond et al, 2019; Reihana et al, 2023; Stewart-Harawira, 2020). For example, air pollution, including odour, at Whareroa Marae in Mount Maunganui is lowering the quality of life of those living near the marae, and community members are concerned about its effects on their cultural practices (Bay of Plenty Regional Council, nd; ESR, 2023). 
• Changes in land cover and biodiversity loss have reduced people’s connection to their local environment over several generations. Loss of connection is particularly pronounced in urban spaces, where the loss of native vegetation can cause disconnection from natural heritage, and a loss of identity and sense of place. Making natural heritage visible in urban areas, where most people live, can help restore our connection to nature (Hall et al, 2021; Rodgers et al, 2023; Walker et al, 2024b). 

Changes to the environment impact our culture, identity and connections to place 

Many important sites and infrastructure for culture and recreation are at risk from flooding, erosion and extreme weather events.  

• Many sites of ecological, archaeological and recreational importance are in low-lying coastal areas at risk from coastal inundation as sea levels rise. This includes 420 archaeological sites on public conservation land (Tait, 2019). 
• Severe weather has extensively damaged recreational infrastructure and tracks in recent years. For instance, the Queen Charlotte Track in the Marlborough Sounds was temporarily closed to walkers and mountain bikers for a few months in 2021. The Okura Bush walkway also remains closed following severe weather in 2023 (DOC, 2021b, 2024c). 
• Culturally important sites and infrastructure, such as marae, burial grounds (urupā) and settlements (kainga), are vulnerable to damage from flooding, erosion, wildfires and other extreme weather events. Damage to these sites can affect the knowledge (mātauranga Māori) associated with them (Awatere et al, 2021; King et al, 2007). Around the country, 191 marae are within 1 kilometre of the coast, and, in the Bay of Plenty alone, 41 urupā are within 1 kilometre (Bailey-Winiata, 2021). 
• Coastal erosion is a particularly serious threat to archaeological sites because it permanently removes them, erasing any evidence they could provide for archaeological investigation. Mapping indicates that the most at-risk areas are in the North Island around Taranaki, Auckland, Coromandel and northern Hawke’s Bay, and in the South Island around Tasman and parts of Otago and Canterbury (Jones et al, 2023). 

The ability to practise and access food-gathering (mahinga kai) and traditional plant medicine (rongoā rākau) is affected by changes to the environment.  

• Changes to our terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments due to land-use change, invasive species, pollution and climate change can have direct impacts on treasured (taonga) species and the ability to carry out mahinga kai and rongoā rākau. This affects the transmission, retention and development of customs and protocols (tikanga), knowledge (mātauranga) and Māori language (te reo Māori), highlighting the importance of protecting these species and safeguarding the embedded knowledge within these practices (Awatere et al, 2021; Collier et al, 2017; Glavinovic et al, 2022; Harmsworth & Awatere, 2013; Herse et al, 2021; Noble et al, 2016; Parsons et al, 2021; Paul-Burke et al, 2020; Phillips et al, 2016; Rainforth & Harmsworth, 2019; Tipa, 2009).  
• More than simply allowing for gathering kai, the ability to collect customary resources affects the authority (mana) of an iwi or hapū. These resources contribute to their capacity for manaakitanga – offering food from their land (whenua) and water (wai) to invited guests is an important part of hospitality (Rainforth & Harmsworth, 2019; Smith & Hutchings, 2024). 
• Mahinga kai connects tangata with whenua (people with land), is intergenerational and is a holistic and integrated value. Mahinga kai includes the ability to access food resources, food-gathering sites, the gathering and use of food, and the abundance and health of species used for food (Awatere et al, 2018; Herse et al, 2021; Rainforth & Harmsworth, 2019; Ruru et al, 2022). 
• Decreased or altered river flows, accumulation of sediment and sewage contamination in rivers, and the effects of excess nutrients in estuaries and the ocean can affect the cultural health of mahinga kai sites. These changes prevent safe access and reduce the availability of mahinga kai species (Collier et al, 2017; Hikuroa et al, 2018; Mika, 2021; Stewart-Harawira, 2020; PCE, 2020; Tipa, 2009; see Our marine environment 2022). 
• Plant medicine (rongoā rākau) is integral to traditional Māori healing practices, and the plants necessary for these practices are vulnerable to changes in the landscape. Adverse effects on these plants can reduce rongoā practitioners’ ability to connect with and harvest them (Awatere et al, 2021; Mark et al, 2022; Marques et al, 2023). 

Changes to the environment affect traditional ways of monitoring the environment. 

• Through observing the environment closely over time, Māori developed a deep knowledge of location-specific environmental indicators, or tohu. These help to monitor and forecast trends in the environment (te taiao) (Harcourt & Awatere, 2022; King et al, 2005; Matthews, 2023; Pomare et al, 2023, Wilcox et al, 2024).  
• Many Māori cultural practices are based on astronomical knowledge, including those related to growing crops and fishing. Reduced visibility of the night sky forces changes to these practices (Hikuroa, 2017; Matamua, 2017; see Environment Aotearoa 2022). 
• Climate change threatens the loss of treasured (taonga) species and resources. This poses risks to the maintenance and transfer of traditional skills, expertise and values relating to practices such as observing the maramataka (Awatere et al, 2021; NZAEE, 2021). Maramataka is the traditional Māori way by which time is marked by observing the phases of the moon. Mātauranga Māori, including maramataka, holds centuries of observations to understand causal effects (Hikuroa, 2017).  
• Changes in local climates are causing tohu to change, which is affecting planting, daily decisions and activities such as resource gathering and hunting (Skipper, 2018). Understanding and monitoring changes to tohu can help to manage and adapt climate-sensitive activities like these (Benson et al, 2020; King et al, 2005; Nursey-Bray et al, 2022; Warbrick et al, 2023). However, the pace of climate change risks the severing of connections with taonga species and tohu, if knowledge adaptation cannot keep up with changes (Awatere et al, 2021; Bond et al, 2019; King et al, 2010; Paul et al, 2016; Penny et al, 2007a, 2007b; Warmenhoven et al, 2014).  
• Taonga species are important for maintaining values such as authority (mana), knowledge (mātauranga), and passing knowledge to the next generation (whakaheke korero). The deterioration of some of these species risks disrupting the maintenance and transmission of tohu (Collier et al, 2017; Harmsworth, 2022b; Harmsworth & Awatere, 2013; Lyver et al, 2017a, 2017b, 2021; Mark et al, 2022; Taura et al, 2021).  

The environment provides the foundation for our homes, infrastructure and livelihoods. It offers the resources and stability needed for a thriving society. However, environmental change, and in particular climate change, poses serious threats to homes, infrastructure and livelihoods. Extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, storms and wildfires, damage housing and infrastructure, particularly in flood-prone and drought-affected areas. Rising sea levels also threaten coastal communities through erosion and inundation, demanding costly repairs and long-term adaptation. Hydropower, which generates about 60 percent of New Zealand’s electricity, is vulnerable to changing rainfall patterns and reduced snowmelt, reducing energy reliability (MBIE, 2023; MfE, 2024g). 

Although some parts of New Zealand’s economy, such as agriculture and forestry, are more visibly dependent on the environment, every sector relies on natural resources and ecosystems to some extent (see Our land 2024). In the year ended June 2024, primary industries contributed $53.3 billion to exports (MPI, 2024a). In the year ended March 2024, international tourism’s contribution to total exports was $16.9 billion (Stats NZ, 2025).  

Many industries – including agriculture, horticulture, forestry, tourism and fisheries – face risks from climate change (Lawrence et al, 2020). Short-term shocks, such as disrupted crop yields and damage to marine ecosystems, can require timely interventions to stabilise food production and protect vulnerable livelihoods. However, addressing the broader long-term impacts of climate change calls for more adaptive and sustainable strategies. The cumulative stress on ecosystems and decline of iconic landscapes necessitate a range of responses, including nature-based solutions. Restoring and enhancing wetlands, for instance, can provide resilient and cost-effective protection for homes, livelihoods and ecosystems. These approaches build adaptive capacity, ensuring ecosystems and communities can better withstand future climate challenges (Hobbie & Grimm, 2020). 

Homes, infrastructure and energy supply 

The impacts of climate change are being felt on our homes and infrastructure.  

• Climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme weather, is increasingly causing daily impacts on our homes and infrastructure. Costs are rising due to disrupted supply chains, power cuts caused by extreme weather, and the need to evacuate homes due to fires or flooding (Grout et al, 2022). 
• Flooding from rainfall and overflowing rivers can damage critical infrastructure including housing and transport, energy, stormwater and wastewater systems. Cyclone Gabrielle is an example of extreme weather that damaged vulnerable infrastructure, including water, transport, power and communication (Ministerial Inquiry into Land Use in Tairāwhiti and Wairoa, 2023). The wastewater treatment plant in Napier was seriously damaged and unable to operate, so that untreated sewage was released into the sea (Jones et al, 2023).  
• Hydropower has provided an average of 57 percent of our electricity each year between 2010 and 2021, but this varies with rainfall. (Deep South, 2021; EECA, nd).  
• In 2023, low rainfall in the South Island led to the lowest inflows to lakes Manapōuri and Te Anau since 1953. Heavy rainfall in the North Island took Lake Taupō storage to its limit, which, despite controlled release, led to minor flooding. This extreme rainfall is partially linked to La Niña and affects hydroelectricity storage and generation across the country. It may become more frequent with climate change (Deep South, 2021; Electricity Authority, 2023; see section 6: Atmosphere and climate). 

Building in at-risk areas and facing more extreme weather makes us more vulnerable to climate change. 

• Ongoing rural development and urban expansion expose more people to wildfire threats in some areas, due to the increasing proximity of homes to highly flammable vegetation such as ungrazed pastures or forestry plots (Huggins et al, 2020; Langer & Wegner, 2018; Langer et al, 2022). During the 2016/17 fire season, more homes were destroyed than in each of the previous 100 years, and this record was then surpassed in 2020/21 (Langer et al, 2021).  
• Development near rivers restricts their natural flow, increasing flood risks to homes and infrastructure, while reducing the flexibility needed to adapt to climate change (Brierley et al, 2023; Hicks et al, 2021). Around 750,000 people and 500,000 buildings, worth more than $145 billion, are near rivers and in coastal areas already exposed to extreme flooding in New Zealand (Awatere et al, 2021; Paulik et al, 2023; see Our atmosphere and climate 2023).  
• Coastal development has increased our vulnerability to extreme wave and storm events, and to the accelerating coastal erosion, inundation and flooding caused by sea-level rise (Awatere et al, 2021; Lawrence et al, 2020; Thompson, 2022). In 2019, 2,273 kilometres of roads, 5,572 kilometres of water pipes, 2,457 square kilometres of land, and buildings with a replacement value of $26.18 billion (2016) were assessed as vulnerable if sea levels rise by 0.6 metres (NIWA, 2019a). 
• Sea-level rise will increasingly affect infrastructure in low-lying and coastal communities. This includes stormwater and wastewater services critical for health and sanitation that are also affected by extreme weather (Feng et al, 2021; Kool et al, 2020; PCE, 2015, 2023, 2024). Impacts from compromised wastewater services include odour, leaks and uncontrolled discharges that contaminate the environment, and will have a range of social, economic, health and cultural consequences (Hughes et al, 2021; Kool et al, 2020; Lawrence et al, 2020; see section 3: Freshwater). 

Our livelihoods – including from primary industries and tourism – are at risk from a changing environment and climate 

Climate change and extreme weather are making primary industries more vulnerable. 

• Extreme weather events such as droughts and floods have cost New Zealand billions of dollars in the last five years (ICNZ, 2021), and the frequency and severity of these events are increasing (see section 6: Atmosphere and climate). Estimated damage to the food and fibre sector alone from Cyclone Gabrielle may total between $700 million and $1.1 billion in recovery costs (MPI, 2023g). In the lower South Island, during the flood event of February 2020, farmland and infrastructure were damaged and revenue was lost where milk tanker access was not possible (Griffin et al, 2023). 
• The Māori economy is particularly vulnerable to climate change because Māori own a large share of assets in the primary sector (Awatere et al, 2021; BNZ, 2024; Haemata Limited, 2023; King et al, 2010; MFAT, 2019). 
• Primary industries (eg, agriculture, horticulture, forestry, fisheries) rely on natural resources such as soil and freshwater. They are therefore expected to be highly affected by climate change. Changes in temperature, rainfall patterns and extreme weather events will affect freshwater and soil, with impacts for agriculture and horticulture (Ausseil et al, 2021; Case et al, 2023; Mourot et al, 2022; Salinger et al, 2019, 2020). 
• Droughts reduce the availability of water for farming, which can negatively affect the economy. This also reduces employment and income (Bell et al, 2021; Nguyen et al, 2022). Snow and rainfall patterns are projected to shift due to climate change, with regional and seasonal variability that will affect patterns in the need and availability of water for irrigation (Mourot et al, 2022; Purdie, 2022; Queen et al, 2023). 
• Forestry plantations are vulnerable to extreme weather events such as wildfires (Villamor et al, 2023; Watt et al, 2019). High-intensity fires incur high economic costs for forests and long recovery times. However, more frequent medium-intensity fires tend to cause the most economic damage (Blanc & Noy, 2024). 
• The changing climate is also having a slow-burning effect by affecting the suitability of regions for producing different crops (Ausseil et al, 2021; Clothier et al, 2012; Lilburne et al, 2024; MPI, nd-a; Rajan et al, 2024; Salinger et al, 2019, 2020). Fruit production will be affected and needing changes to cultivation practices. Impacts include changes in fruit quality and quantity, changes in flowering and fruiting periods (Ausseil et al, 2021), and increasing risk of insufficient winter chilling (Rajan et al, 2024). 
• Pests and diseases are compromising productivity in land-based industries, as they become more susceptible to new invasions (Keegan et al, 2022). Intensified production systems may be more vulnerable to disruption (Meurisse et al, 2023). The total costs of pests were estimated at $9.2 billion in 2019/20 (2.9 percent of gross domestic product), with about $4.3 billion attributed to losses in primary production (MPI, 2021c). 
• Sea-level rise is expected to impact coastal agricultural land, increasing flooding and salinisation, particularly in areas below mean sea level (Craig et al, 2023). 

Fisheries and aquaculture are affected by warming seas and marine heatwaves. 

• Climate change, sedimentation, diseases and invasive species pose risks for aquaculture and fishing. Commercial fishing species such as snapper, hoki, pāua and kōura are among the many at-risk species (Awatere et al, 2021; King et al, 2010; Johnson et al, 2024; PMCSA, 2021). Warming sea temperatures and ocean acidification may affect some species and ecosystems that are important for aquaculture and wild-caught fisheries. For example, they may reduce the growth rate of shellfish (including flat oysters, green-lipped mussels and pāua) and of snapper and other fish (Cummings et al, 2021; Lundquist et al, 2023). However, ocean warming could increase the catch of flatfish, trevally and jack mackerel (Mediodia et al, 2024). 
• Changes in the distribution of fish stocks due to changing ocean temperatures will affect fishery interests. Quotas are tied to specific areas or zones, posing a challenge for quota management if the related fish stocks relocate. Māori commercial fisheries hold about a third of the interests in New Zealand, so would be affected as part of this (Hudson, 2022).  
• Commercial fisheries are also vulnerable to increased frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves. Moderate events are associated with increased fish catches, but higher-intensity events are associated with substantially lower catches (Lacheheb et al, 2024).  

Tourism is at risk from changes in the environment and climate. 

• New Zealand is renowned for its beautiful landscapes, which are important for attracting tourists (DOC, 2024; PwC, nd, 2023). Climate change, biodiversity loss, coastal erosion, shorter snow seasons and melting glaciers put the tourism industry at risk (Aotearoa Circle, 2023; PwC, nd). 
• The decreasing volumes of ice in glaciers affect tourism, with challenges such as alpine access and tourist safety (Purdie et al, 2020; Wang and Zhou, 2019). At the Tasman Glacier, the effects of climate change have also resulted in opportunities to adapt to changing conditions. The rapidly expanding lake means visitors take boat tours to get close to the calving ice at the glacier edge, and shorter winter freezing allows a longer tourist season (Carver & Tweed, 2021; Purdie et al, 2020). 
• Engaging with the night sky is important for cultural practices, astrotourism and astronomical research, but light pollution degrades these values. The creation of dark sky reserves is helping to protect areas from light pollution. They are popular tourist destinations and foster economic, social and cultural growth by preserving night-sky views and providing educational opportunities (Patterson, 2023; South Wairarapa District Council, nd; Tapada et al, 2021; Zielinska-Dabkowska & Xavia, 2021).