1. Drivers

We depend on the environment to support our basic needs, lifestyle and livelihoods. The environment we rely on includes the ecosystem services that nature provides, such as services that provide clean air and water, pollinate crops and maintain a stable climate. Natural infrastructure (eg, forests, wetlands, soils and rivers) plays a crucial role in maintaining these services. Natural systems not only support agriculture and forestry, but mitigate the impacts of natural disasters and climate change. However, using and modifying the environment to meet our needs can put pressure on nature and its ability to sustain us (IPBES, 2019; see Our land 2024 and section 7: Impacts on people, society and the economy). 

In this context, ‘drivers’ are the social, cultural, demographic and economic activities that create pressures on the environment. These forces can act collectively and at a variety of scales from global to national, local and even individual. Many are dynamic and interconnected, and are evolving in response to changes in society, the economy and the environment (IPBES, 2018). 

Global drivers such as geopolitics, international markets and demographics influence the decisions we make locally in different ways, as do our own values. These decisions include how we live and travel and what we buy (IPBES, 2022, 2024a). Along with factors such as population change and new technologies, our decisions combine to either increase or decrease environmental pressures. 

Aotearoa New Zealand operates within a complex and dynamic geopolitical system, where global events drive the political, social, economic and environmental forces that shape our nation. Our economy and way of life rely heavily on international consumer demand for our export products, and for access to vital commodities we cannot produce here. However, global instability – caused by factors such as wars, pandemics and the escalating impacts of climate disruption – poses significant risks to both our economy and our environment. 

These destabilising forces affect global markets, which directly influence our export-driven economy (MFAT, 2023a). For instance, international pressures and customer demand drive businesses to calculate and reduce their carbon footprints, as major overseas customers work toward 2030 emission targets (EECA, 2025). Environmental certifications are now essential for maintaining market access and securing premium prices for exports. Losing such certifications could not only lower economic performance but also cause further degradation of the environment by weakening the incentive to use sustainable practices. 

The rapid rise of initiatives such as the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures and ‘nature positive’ strategies highlight the growing importance of nature markets for market access. These changes come with shifts in agricultural lending practices. International lenders often require impact and climate change assessments. These examples show that while some international drivers pose challenges, others foster positive change. 

Finally, the growing instability in global geopolitics threatens the viability of international agreements that protect the environment. As the impacts of climate change intensify, the weakening or collapse of these agreements could have significant consequences for the nation’s environmental health, and for collective efforts to address global challenges such as biodiversity loss and carbon emissions.

Our overall quality of life and wealth are closely tied to the health of the economy. All of these factors rely on a healthy, productive environment. Resilient and enduring economic growth is essential to improving living standards and quality of life, while looking after the environment on which we depend (Galt & Nees, 2022; MBIE, 2023). 

Unlike most developed economies in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), New Zealand exports are mostly primary sector products (MPI, 2024a). International demand for primary sector products is strong, and is predicted to continue to rise with ongoing growth in both the global population and wealth, as well as international climate disruptions (FAO, 2024; MPI, 2023a; MPI, 2024a; OECD-FAO, 2023). Tourism also forms a significant part of the export sector (Stats NZ, 2025). The export economy – and our gross domestic product – rely heavily on productive land, available freshwater, oceans and scenic environments (MPI, 2023a; see Our land 2024 and Our freshwater 2023).  

The industries that rely on productive environments, such as agriculture and fishing, can also put pressure on the natural systems that support them. This can lower productivity and degrade the wider environment, giving rise to the effects outlined in section 7: Impacts on people, society and the economy.  

New Zealand’s population is growing and ageing. It grew by about 750,000 between 2013 and 2023 (Stats NZ, 2024a, 2024c). Population projections indicate the population of New Zealand has a 90 percent probability of increasing to between 5.55 and 6.65 million by 2048, meaning it is highly likely to grow by at least 400,000 compared with 2022 (Stats NZ, 2022a). In 2023, people aged 65 years and older made up 16.6 percent of the population, up from 14.3 percent in 2013; children under 15 years of age made up 18.7 percent, down from 20.4 percent in 2013 (Stats NZ, nd). These ageing trends are expected to continue over the coming decades (Stats NZ, 2022a). 

These changes are major drivers of other demographic trends, such as where we live, work and build. This in turn can have significant implications for the pressures we place on the environment. With more people comes greater demand for land to build on, and for more energy and public infrastructure as towns and cities grow. Depending on how we build, accommodating this growth can displace or degrade – or preserve and restore – the environment and natural infrastructure we depend on (Auckland Council, nd; EHINZ, nd-a; MfE, 2023a; New Zealand Infrastructure Commission, 2024; Public Health Agency, 2022; see Our land 2024). 

The way we live our lives – where we live, what we buy and how we spend our time – ultimately determines how much impact we have on our environment. Some cause-and-effect relationships are immediate and obvious, but many are subtle, only noticeable over the longer term, and can seem far-removed from our daily lives. This complexity can mean that economic, social, cultural and environmental trade-offs from our decisions are not apparent (Acaroglu, 2019; Deloitte, 2023; Gkargkavouzi & Halkos, 2024; Vega, 2024).  

Living in a country with a developed economy and high purchasing power, we have significant choice in what we consume (Miller et al, 2017; OECD, 2024; Reserve Bank of New Zealand, nd; Watkins et al, 2021). These choices, such as what we eat and where it comes from, create demands for domestic and imported goods, driving production locally and internationally. These economies and their supply chains can put pressure on the environment. For example, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions associated with imported goods in 2019 was about equal to the emissions we produced here (Stats NZ, 2021a).  

Our consumption habits also affect how much waste we generate. New Zealand has one of the highest per capita rates of waste generation in the developed world, though there are inconsistencies in how different countries report this (OECD, 2024). Most waste from households is disposed of in municipal landfills, and the amount going to landfills has stabilised in recent years (MfE, 2024a). 

Where we live and work, and how we travel, also drive environmental pressures. A preference for standalone housing and private land, for example, drives the expansion of cities into rural areas (MfE 2023a; PCE, 2023). Vehicle ownership per person in New Zealand is among the highest in the world, with vehicle use contributing to our high per-capita emissions and to global climate change (MfE, 2024c; see section 5: Air). In 2023, 85 percent of New Zealanders who worked away from home, and 45 percent who studied away from home, commuted in private vehicles (Stats NZ, 2024c).  

Technology and innovation play a large role in shaping how we understand and respond to environmental change. From data to urban planning and agriculture, innovation drives both positive and negative impacts. 

Data tools are transforming how we monitor and manage the environment. Technologies like satellite images, sensors and mapping systems can help track water quality, forest health, or urban growth in real time. In New Zealand these tools could be increasingly used to manage and monitor freshwater, biodiversity and land-use change in more efficient ways (DOC, 2023; Reid & Castka, 2023). Advanced models, machine learning and artificial intelligence can then analyse these data to predict future trends and plan for climate change (AI Forum NZ, 2022; Giupponi et al, 2022). However, it is also important to consider the energy use of these systems and ensure fair access to technologies. 

In towns and cities, development can displace or degrade existing natural infrastructure. This reduces ecosystem services and carbon storage, impacting on climate mitigation potential.  

However, developing more innovative and green or nature-based infrastructure, such as restoring streams, re-establishing floodplains and preserving or creating wetland ‘sponges’ (eg, Making Space for Water initiatives), can conserve and improve ecosystems (Auckland Council, 2024; PCE, 2023; Tasman District Council, nd; see Our land 2024 and Our freshwater 2023). 

In rural areas, innovation provides a chance to expand and improve the economy, which may either reduce or increase environmental pressures (FAO, nd; MPI, 2017). Improvements in farming methods, irrigation, equipment and wastewater treatment have already increased output while attempting to minimise environmental harm (Ekanayake & Hedley, 2018; Fernandez, 2017; Macintosh et al, 2025; Monaghan et al, 2021). Emerging technologies like low-emission stock feed and resource-efficient crops could minimise agricultural emissions and ensure productivity (Caradus, 2023; Climate Commission, 2021; Driver et al, 2023; NZAGRC, 2021; Roques et al, 2024).  

Geopolitical forces overseas (including global economic trends) significantly affect climate change in New Zealand, and have given rise to international policies and agreements (eg, the Paris Agreement) to respond to these drivers. Geopolitical tensions and conflicts can also disrupt supply chains, leading to fluctuating energy prices and availability. This in turn affects our energy consumption patterns and emissions (Skilling, 2022; Winkelmann et al, 2019). The economy, largely driven by the primary sector and tourism, contributes to greenhouse gas emissions (see section 6: Atmosphere and climate). Population growth, particularly in cities, exacerbates these effects by increasing the demand for housing, transport and services (MfE, 2023a; PCE, 2023). As the country’s population and economy continue to grow, so does its reliance and impact on the environment, contributing to climate change. 

Climate change can amplify drivers and pressures in other environmental domains. For more detail on this complex relationship, see section 6: Atmosphere and climate. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns give rise to droughts and reduced water availability, increasing tensions over water resources. Extreme weather events, such as cyclones, can disrupt infrastructure, agriculture, tourism and food systems, leading to economic instability. Population displacement due to climate-induced events, such as coastal erosion and flooding, can put extra pressure on people and property (see section 7: Impacts on people, society and the economy). This interconnectedness means that climate change poses a critical challenge for the environment and economy (IPBES, 2019).