The Retail scenarios were developed by a consortium of major Aotearoa New Zealand-based retailers.
The report is aimed at supporting retail businesses to reimagine how their value chains operate in the face of climate change risks and opportunities.
Scenarios explore three possible futures
- An orderly scenario with moderate transition risk from immediate and ambitious efforts to reduce emissions. Physical risks are comparatively low in this scenario from having avoided tipping points in the climate system.
- A disorderly scenario with high transition risks because of delayed action. Physical impacts are low-moderate from carbon removal efforts that have avoiding a tipping point in the climate system.
- A hot house scenario where there are substantial physical impacts from limited efforts to curb emissions. There is a strong focus on adapting to climate change impacts and continued prioritisation of economic growth.
Narratives describe anticipated climate change impacts under each scenario
These include but are not limited to:
- mean annual temperature change
- number of hot days
- number of frost days
- sea level rise
- extreme precipitation.
Socioeconomic trends explored
These include New Zealand economic damage from:
- extreme weather
- economic growth
- inflation rates
- carbon price
- population growth.
Anticipated impacts on the retail sector are discussed through the scenarios. Impacts include shifts in retail business models (eg, from conspicuous consumption to conscious consumption), energy and material availability, and changes in regulation and consumer preferences.
For limitations of the retail scenarios see Integrated climate change scenarios for New Zealand's retail sector (PDF, 8.4 MB) [KPMG website]
There are a total of three Retail scenarios, each with a different narrative and emissions trajectory.
Orderly
International and domestic policy settings aim to limit total warming by end-of-century to less than 1.5°C. This entails halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and reaching net zero emissions around 2050.
Though ambitious, these targets are insufficient to avoid crossing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold by mid-century.
Medium to high deployment of carbon removal solutions dials the heat back to 1.4°C warming by end-century. Accordingly, the physical impacts of climate change are limited and affordable. We have avoided a tipping point in our climate system, beyond which, greenhouse gas emissions would lead to:
- a shutdown of large ocean circulation systems
- massive permafrost melting
Disorderly
International and domestic policy settings aim to limit total warming to less than 1.5°C this century. However, decisive action is delayed. Global emissions peak in 2030, then drop sharply.
As a result of delayed action, deeply destabilising policies are now required to keep total warming below potentially catastrophic levels. Negative emissions (i.e. more greenhouse gases captured and stored than emitted) are necessary in the second half of this century.
Low to medium deployment of carbon removal solutions dials the heat back to 1.6°C warming by end-century. Accordingly, the physical impacts of climate change are more likely than not to be limited and affordable.
It is also more likely than not that we have avoided a tipping point in our climate system, beyond which, greenhouse gas emissions would lead to:
- a shutdown of large ocean circulation systems
- massive permafrost melting
Hot House
his is a divided world that refuses to cooperate and confront the non-negotiable realities of planetary boundaries.
Instead, countries focus on their short-term domestic best interests, resulting in persistent and worsening inequality and environmental degradation. International and domestic policy settings result in well over 3.0°C warming by end of century.
The physical impacts of climate change are substantial by mid-century. However, from 2050 onwards, their scope, scale, and ferocity accelerate.
In this scenario we have almost certainly surpassed a tipping point in the earth’s climate system, beyond which, greenhouse gas emissions would lead to:
- a shutdown of large ocean circulation systems
- massive permafrost melting
Under this scenario, the world is most likely to have warmed by roughly 3.6°C (potential range of 2.8°C to 4.6°C) at end of century, with global average sea levels having risen by 46 to 74 centimetres - assuming ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica remain stable.