The Agriculture sector scenarios were developed by the Aotearoa Circle in collaboration with technical experts across climate science, the agriculture sector, policy, and sustainable finance.
The scenarios and accompanying adaptation roadmap have three objectives
- To translate climate and socioeconomic projections into operational, commercial, and social implications for the sector.
- To demonstrate the challenges facing the agriculture sector in developing and implementing their approach to climate change adaptation.
- To highlight opportunities and recommend actions for addressing the challenges and supporting the sector to adapt.
Narratives describe anticipated climate impacts under each scenario
These including increases in:
- increases in global temperature
- extreme rainfall
- area of native forestry
- sea level rise
Socioeconomic trends explored
These include:
- New Zealand and global population
- oil price
- carbon price
- global GDP
Anticipated impacts on the agriculture sector are discussed throughout the scenarios. These include operating costs, changes in agriculture practices, export markets, new financing tools and schemes, and adaptation efforts.
These sector scenarios were designed to be decision-relevant for the agriculture sector and facilitate greater consistency and comparability across sector participants.
They were developed to support the sector in considering and responding to future climate change outcomes and implications, including farmers, growers, and industry players in the agriculture sector value chain.
Some public sector entities may find aspects of sector scenarios, such as the Agriculture scenarios, useful for testing policies or strategies. This will depend on the nature of your organisation and focal question.
To read more about the meta scenarios and data the agriculture scenarios are based on see:
Agriculture sector climate change scenarios [Aotearoa Circle website]
For limitations of existing global climate scenarios, upon which the
Agri-Sector scenarios are based see:
The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios - Limitations and assumptions of commonly used climate-change scenarios in financial services [Institute and Faculty of Actuaries website]
There are a total of three Agriculture scenarios, each with a different narrative and emissions trajectory.
(Orderly) Tū-ā-pae
Tū-ā-pae represents a world defined by a smooth transition to net zero CO₂ by 2050. Global warming is limited to 1.5°C through stringent climate policies and innovation.
Tū-ā-pae assumes climate policies are introduced immediately and become gradually more stringent as 2050 looms. Both physical and transition risks are relatively subdued. Achieving net zero by 2050 reflects an ambitious mitigation scenario.
(Disorderly) Tū-ā-hopo
Tū-ā-hopo represents a world with little policy action until after 2030 after which strong, rapid action is implemented to limit warming to 2°C.
In Tū-ā-hopo, countries and territories use fossil-fuel heavy policies to recover from Covid-19, so emissions increase, and nationally determined contributions are not met.
It is only after 2030 that new climate change policies are introduced, but not all countries take equal action. Consequently, physical and transition risks are higher. This is a costly and disruptive transition.
(Hot house) Tū-ā-tapape
Tū-ā-tapape scenario describes a world in which emissions continue to rise unabated as no additional climate change policies are introduced. Fossil fuel use continues to increase, and so global CO₂ emissions continue to rise and warming is expected to reach 3°C high by 2080.
The physical impacts of climate change are severe. There are irreversible changes such as ice sheet loss and sea level rise. Adapting to climate change has become the priority.