First national climate change risk assessment for New Zealand

The risk assessment:

• gives the first national picture of the risks New Zealand faces from climate change
• identifies 43 priority risks covering all aspects of life from our ecosystems and communities to buildings and the financial system 
• groups risks according to five value domains: natural environment, human, economy, built environment, and governance
• identifies the 10 most significant risks that require urgent action in the next six years to reduce their impacts 
• lays the foundation for a national adaptation plan which will outline the Government’s response to these risks.

The risk assessment was carried out over nine months by a diverse, multi-disciplinary team led by AECOM, together with Tonkin and Taylor, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and others.

It was carried out in three stages.

Diagram description

Stage 1: First-pass risk screen

Examine risks and opportunities across New Zealand.

Prioritise these for further assessment.

Result: A set of 48 priority risks and five opportunities. Priority risks are those with extreme or major consequence ratings in at least one of three assessment timeframes (now, by 2050, by 2100).

Stage 2: Detailed risk assessment

Examine the 48 risks.

Investigate vulnerability and exposure.

Clarify the consequences of these risks under two climate scenarios in the present term, near term and long term.

Result: A set of 43 priority risks and four opportunities.

Stage 3: Urgency for adaptation

Assess existing and planned adaptation and how high-level actions are addressing priority risks.

Identify:

• where early action would avoid being locked into a current pathway
• actions needing long lead times
• actions with long-term implications.

Result: Urgency ratings for adaptation, for each priority risk and opportunity.

The people responsible for leading work associated with each of the five domains were: 

• Governance – Dr Judy Lawrence (Victoria University)
• Economy – Dr Anita Wreford (Lincoln University)
• Human- Dr Paula Blackett (NIWA)
• Built Environment – James Hughes (Tonkin & Taylor)
• Natural Environment – John Leathwick (Conservation science consultant).

More than 400 people were involved. They were from local government, central government, the private sector, primary sector, financial sector, iwi/Māori and universities/research institutes. 

The risk assessment used a framework, developed by a panel of experts. The framework provided the methodology for the risk assessment.

See Arotakenga Huringa Āhuarangi: A Framework for the National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand.

The risk assessment method report details how the framework was applied to the risk assessment.

National adaptation plan within two years

• A national adaptation plan will outline what we need to do to respond to the risks and will be published by August 2022.
• The Government will work with iwi/Māori, local government and others to develop the plan. New Zealanders will also have an opportunity to have their say.
• The Climate Change Commission will monitor its implementation and report to the Minister every two years on its effectiveness.

Next risk assessment within six years

• The Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act 2019 requires a risk assessment at least every six years. The Climate Change Commission will carry out future risk assessments. 
• The first risk assessment lays the groundwork for the next by documenting the method (see the Method report). 

For details on other adaptation actions that the Government is taking to respond to the impacts of climate change see Adapting to climate change.