Stage 1: First-pass risk screen
Examine risks and opportunities across New Zealand.
Prioritise these for further assessment.
Result: A set of 48 priority risks and five opportunities. Priority risks are those with extreme or major consequence ratings in at least one of three assessment timeframes (now, by 2050, by 2100).
Stage 2: Detailed risk assessment
Examine the 48 risks.
Investigate vulnerability and exposure.
Clarify the consequences of these risks under two climate scenarios in the present term, near term and long term.
Result: A set of 43 priority risks and four opportunities.
Stage 3: Urgency for adaptation
Assess existing and planned adaptation and how high-level actions are addressing priority risks.
- where early action would avoid being locked into a current pathway
- actions needing long lead times
- actions with long-term implications.
Result: Urgency ratings for adaptation, for each priority risk and opportunity.
The people responsible for leading work associated with each of the five domains were:
- Governance – Dr Judy Lawrence (Victoria University)
- Economy – Dr Anita Wreford (Lincoln University)
- Human- Dr Paula Blackett (NIWA)
- Built Environment – James Hughes (Tonkin & Taylor)
- Natural Environment – John Leathwick (Conservation science consultant).
More than 400 people were involved. They were from local government, central government, the private sector, primary sector, financial sector, iwi/Māori and universities/research institutes.
The risk assessment used a framework, developed by a panel of experts. The framework provided the methodology for the risk assessment.
See Arotakenga Huringa Āhuarangi: A Framework for the National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand.
The risk assessment method report details how the framework was applied to the risk assessment.