Data and research gaps

Climate change transcends boundaries and domains, affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, societies, economies, and our way of life. Addressing this interconnected nature is crucial, and having comprehensive data and research that reflect this holistic perspective becomes paramount to protect the environment for ourselves and future generations. In this section, our focus is not on individual or specific data gaps but on high-level themes essential for navigating the complexities of our changing climate. By recognizing the interdependence of various aspects of our environment and understanding how changes in one area ripple through others, we can better prepare and adapt to the effects of climate change.

It is particularly challenging to know what climate change impacts might look like in the future, because multiple pressures across different systems can interact and compound or cascade. Understanding how these complex climate risks will manifest is critical for identifying what is most at risk. This can inform decisions in the context of different community priorities and interests. These climate-induced changes will have different effects for the varying interests, goals, responsibilities, health and wellbeing of whānau, hapū and iwi, and their relationships with te taiao.

A determining factor for what will happen in the future is the human potential, both domestic and international, to respond appropriately to climate change by mitigation and adaptation activities. Our climate is influenced by the human choices that shape our institutions, economies and innovation processes. Conversely, our choices will be influenced by the climate because the greater intensity and frequency of climate-related events will increase the salience and urgency of climate issues among citizens and decision-makers. To formulate projections of the future, even regarding physical trends like global heating and biodiversity impacts, we need to better understand how societies, economies and institutions are likely to act. This will involve addressing knowledge deficits in the social sciences of climate action, which includes psychology, political science, new economic paradigms, complexity science and socio-technical transitions. These complex system dynamics can have substantial implications for future emissions trends, policy pathways and adaptive responses to climate impacts.

Aotearoa New Zealand’s environmental monitoring and reporting system is crucial in protecting te taiao (the environment). Its effectiveness depends on how well we collect and analyse data about the state of the environment, and this needs improving. Robust observation systems and long-term datasets are vital for understanding climate change and its effects. These data help us detect trends, compare observed changes to climate projections, and make necessary adjustments. The Ministry for the Environment, together with sector partners, is embarking on a significant programme of work to reform the foundations of the environmental monitoring and reporting system. This will include developing core indicators for monitoring our environment, designing the analytical architecture required to assess and interpret the data, and the blueprint design for a national monitoring network.

Mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) represents a valuable record of our environment that is unique to Aotearoa. Our mātauranga Māori evidence base needs to be built on and strengthened to better understand effects on te ao Māori (Māori worldview). This requires improving the resourcing of Māori research and access to ngā tohu o te taiao (environmental indicators) drawing from mātauranga Māori. Our ability to access and share rohe- and place based knowledge and evidence needs to be improved. This will enhance our understanding of localised pressures, state and impacts, and elevate the value of this knowledge in reporting.

Gaining a better understanding of the significant processes controlling the climate–Earth system is fundamental for improving climate projections. This would further reduce uncertainty in climate sensitivity calculations and enhance our understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This is particularly challenging because the environment is full of diverse and complex ecosystems. Integrative and holistic studies can help provide a more complete picture, as shown in te ao Māori. We need to build a more holistic understanding of the state of the climate and all its links to ecosystems, habitats, species and human systems.

International evidence is overwhelming that the risks and effects from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are significant, affecting every aspect of the environment and human life. Aotearoa is only beginning to observe a subset of these effects, but whether this is due to limited research and monitoring, delayed onset or lack of impacts is unknown. Comparing international research and evidence within our local context is crucial to understanding our unique climate change sensitivities and challenges and developing effective and place-based strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Aotearoa lacks a comprehensive and holistic understanding of the effects of climate change on its unique biodiversity and ecosystems. This requires more integrated analyses of the data we have and investing in wider monitoring of, and research into, lesser understood components of the environment including natural–human sub-system interactions and mātauranga Māori.

Aotearoa is being increasingly confronted with climate impacts like flooding, including coastal flooding, drought and heat stress. As the effects of these changes become more frequent, we will have less time to recover and cumulative consequences will occur that could flow on to affect our social and economic activities. We need to better understand the interdependencies between our climate system, urban systems, infrastructure (including utilities), financial services (including banking and insurance) and governance systems.