Appendix B: Probabilistic and analytic confidence language used in this document
| Probabilistic language | Associated numeric probability |
|---|---|
| Almost certain | >90% |
| Highly / Very probable / Likely | 75–85% |
| Probable / Likely | 55–70% |
| Realistic possibility | 25–50% |
| Improbable / Unlikely | 15–20% |
| Remote / Highly unlikely | <10% |
| High confidence | Assessments are based on high-quality information, and/or the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgement. A ‘high confidence’ judgement is not a fact, however, and still carries a risk of being incorrect. |
| Moderate confidence | Assessments are based on credibly sourced and plausible information, but not of sufficient quality or corroboration to warrant a higher level of confidence. |
| Low confidence | Assessments are based on questionable or implausible information, the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or significant concerns or problems with sources existed. |
Outlooks assessments contained in this report should not be read as statements of fact and may be based on a variety of sources of differing reliability. Certain words in this document are used to convey the probability of analytical assessments. These are used in conjunction with expressions of confidence which provide an indication of the reliability and level of corroboration of sources used in an assessment. Our use of probabilistic language and analytic confidence levels is not the same or directly comparable with that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The language and probability ranges we use are the same as other government agencies, to maintain consistency.
Appendix B: Probabilistic and analytic confidence language used in this document
November 2023
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