Information on ERP modelling

Details of the request

1. Information on the natural gas supply, demand and price assumptions and outputs in the ERP ENZ modelling (for both the updated Baseline and "New Measures" scenarios). I am interested in understanding the rationale for how these assumptions were chosen as well as the final outcome. I am particularly interested in how officials ensured that gas demand and price were made consistent with available supply in the short term (pre-2035 when new domestic gas will not be available) and over the long term (to 2050).
2. Modelling of the planting and deforestation rates for exotic and native forestry and resulting removals, from the ERP policies of 1) partnerships for afforestation on Crown-owned land, and 2) Land-use class entry restrictions in the ETS. It is unclear from the documentation published how these two policies contribute to the difference between the Baseline and New Measures scenarios.
3. Could I please have a copy of the annual times series of projections for LULUCF in inventory basis (e.g. as shown in Figure 2.5.20 of New Zealand's first Biennial Transparency Report) for the WEM Scenario, and also the WAM scenario, including the high and low variants for each.

[& just a note - this data was routinely published on the MfE projections web page when past biennial reports were released. The current data table for this year's report only contains the target accounting numbers and it'd be great if you published the inventory projections as well].

Response documents

1. File note on Methanex Dec 12 2024 (PDF, 156 KB)
2. ENZ outputs - gas (baseline and NM) (XLSX, 81 KB)
3. Afforestation economic analysis AOCL (XLSX, 892 KB)
4. LUC ETS restriction calculations and data (XLSX 745 KB)