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The existing climate scenarios presented in this list are those commonly applied or used as the ‘building blocks’ for scenario development in the New Zealand context.
This list of climate scenarios is not exhaustive. It does not include every existing set of climate scenarios that are out there.
If your focal question is highly specific or niche (such as related to a particular industry, business, or natural ecosystem) its likely you will need to develop scenarios using additional data, information and narrative elements not covered by the scenarios in this list.
| Name | Scenario type | Developed by | Latest version published | Number of scenarios | Time horizon | Key themes | Read more |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) | Global | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) | 2021 | 5 | Long-term (2100) | Socioeconomic Global narrative Physical climate impacts |
Read more about the IPCC SSP-RCP scenarios |
| Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) scenarios | Global | Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) | 2023 | 7 | Medium-term (2050) | Socioeconomic Global narrative Financial system Transition risks Physical climate impacts |
Read more about the NGFS scenarios |
| Network for Greening the Financial System short-term scenarios | Global | Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) | 2023 | 5 | Short-term (2030) | Socioeconomic Global narrative Economy Finance Transition risks Technology |
Read more about the NGFS short-term scenarios |
| International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook | Global | International Energy Agency (IEA) | 2023 | 4 (including baseline scenario) | Medium-term (2050) | Global narrative Energy markets Global energy use |
Read more about the IEA scenarios |
| No Time To Lose | Global | Universities Superannuation Scheme (UK) and the University of Exeter | 2023 | 4 | Short-term (2030) | Global narrative Geopolitics Economy Finance Technology |
Read more about the No Time To Lose scenarios |
| Climate data for Aotearoa New Zealand (based on IPCC scenarios) | National | NIWA, NZ SeaRise | 2018-2024 | 5 | Long-term (2100+) |
New Zealand climate data Physical climate impacts |
Read more about climate data for Aotearoa New Zealand |
| He Pou a Rangi / Climate Change Commission scenarios | National | He Pou a Rangi / Climate Change Commission | 2021 | 5 (including baseline scenario) | Medium-term (2050) | New Zealand narrative Technology change Behaviour change |
Read more about the Climate Change Commission scenarios |
| Shared Policy Assumptions for New Zealand (SPANZ) scenarios | National | Consortium of New Zealand research entities | 2016 | 6 | Long-term (2100) | New Zealand narrative Socioeconomic Policy Physical climate impacts |
Read more about the SPANZ scenarios |
| Aquaculture and Fisheries scenarios | Sector | The Aotearoa Circle | 2020 | 2 | Medium-term (2050) | Marine sector New Zealand narrative Transition risks Physical climate risks |
Read more about the Aquaculture and Fisheries scenarios |
| Tourism Sector Climate Change Scenarios | Sector | The Aotearoa Circle | 2022 | 3 | Medium-term (2050) | Tourism sector New Zealand narrative Transition risks Physical climate risks |
Read more about the Tourism Sector scenarios |
| Climate Scenarios Narratives for the Banking Sector | Sector | New Zealand Banking Association (NZBA) | 2023 | 3 | Long-term (2080+) | Banking sector New Zealand narrative Transition risks Physical climate risks |
Read more about the Banking Sector scenarios |
| Agri-Sector Climate Change Scenarios | Sector | The Aotearoa Circle | 2023 | 3 | Medium-term (2050) | Agriculture sector New Zealand narrative Transition risks Physical climate risks |
Read more about the Agri-Sector scenarios |
| Climate Scenarios for the Construction and Property Sector | Sector | New Zealand Green Building Council (NZGBC) | 2023 | 3 | Long-term (2100) | Construction and Property sector New Zealand narrative Transition risks Physical climate risks |
Read more about the Construction and Property Sector scenarios |
| Climate Scenarios Narratives for the Financial Services Sector | Sector | Financial Services Council (FSC) New Zealand | 2023 | 3 | Medium-term (2050) | Financial services New Zealand narrative Transition risks Physical climate risks |
Read more about the Financial Servies Sector scenarios |
| The Futures of Retail: Integrated Climate Change Scenarios for the Retail Sector | Sector | KPMG | 2023 | 3 | Medium-term (2050) | Retail New Zealand narrative Transition risks Physical climate risks |
Read more about the Retail Sector scenarios |