This page has the latest update on New Zealand’s 2020 target and how it is calculated. We use the net position to track progress towards our international emissions reduction target for the period 2013–2020 (our 2020 target).
The latest net position update is based on New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2020), which covers the period from 1990 to 2020. This means we have inventory data and unit information to work out whether we will meet our 2020 target.
Based on the 2022 submission of New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory:
Note: The 2022 inventory submission is yet to go through the formal United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change expert review process. Until then, the findings in this update on New Zealand’s target achievement are provisional.
This is a two column bar chart.
Column one shows New Zealand’s gross emissions for the period 2013-2020 are 639.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Column two is stacked, showing the carbon budget for 2013-2020, forestry activities, and surplus commitment period one units, totalling 661.0 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
There is a double pointed arrow above the first column showing the difference between the two columns. This is the net position. The net position for the 2013-2020 target is currently a surplus of 21.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
For information on how New Zealand’s 2020 net position is calculated, the accounting framework and the carbon budget (also referred to as the emissions budget) see New Zealand’s initial report.
The table below sets out the contributions to the target and how it is calculated.
|
|
Emissions estimate |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Contribution |
2013 |
2013 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
TOTAL |
|
2013 to 2020 carbon budget |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
509.8 |
|
Forestry activities: Afforestation and reforestation, and deforestation |
8.6 |
11.3 |
13.1 |
13.6 |
15.6 |
15.4 |
13.6 |
13.4 |
104.6 |
|
Forestry activities: Forest management |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18.7 |
18.7 |
|
Surplus CP1 units |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28.0 |
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
661.1 |
|
Emissions |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Energy |
32.1 |
32.2 |
32.4 |
31.0 |
32.5 |
32.5 |
33.9 |
31.5 |
258.0 |
|
Industrial processes and product use |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
39.1 |
|
Agriculture |
39.3 |
39.9 |
39.4 |
39.0 |
39.1 |
39.4 |
39.5 |
39.4 |
315.1 |
|
Waste |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
27.4 |
|
Gross emissions |
79.8 |
80.6 |
80.4 |
78.4 |
79.9 |
80.1 |
81.6 |
78.8 |
639.6 |
|
Net position |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21.5 |
Note: All emissions are in Mt CO2-e. Units represent one tonne of greenhouse gas emissions as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) removed from the atmosphere. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding to one decimal place.
For our 2020 target, New Zealand’s carbon budget for the period 2013 to 2020 is 509.8 Mt CO2-e.
This budget is based on 1990 gross emissions reported in New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2014 published in 2016 and calculated according to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) guidance (refer to New Zealand’s Initial Report for further information on the target, budget and accounting framework).
In line with the Kyoto Protocol framework of rules, mandatory forestry activities must be included in accounting for targets.
New Zealand’s forestry activities provide a net removal of 123.3 Mt CO2-e towards meeting our 2020 target.
As 2020 is the end year of the target period, we are able to calculate the contribution to the target from forest management activities. The contribution from these forests is accounted for against a reference level, and up to a capped amount. This contributes a net removal of 18.7 Mt CO2-e towards the 2020 target.
For more information, refer to chapter 11 of the 2022 inventory submission.
Gross emissions estimates are sourced from the 2022 inventory submission. These estimates cover all sectors excluding Tokelau, as emissions from Tokelau were not included in New Zealand’s inventory when the target was taken and carbon budget was set.
These estimates are reported in the sector categories described below.
|
Sector category |
Provisional gross emissions |
|---|---|
|
Energy |
Energy emissions total 258.0 Mt CO2-e for the period 2013 – 2020.
Emissions for energy over 2013 to 2020 have stayed fairly stable. This is due to decreases in stationary and fugitive energy emissions, alongside increases in transport emissions.
The increase in transport emissions is driven by population growth with the demand for petrol and diesel for road transport increasing. |
|
Industrial processes and product use (IPPU) |
IPPU emissions total 39.1 Mt CO2-e for the period 2013 – 2020.
Annual IPPU emissions have stayed fairly stable over the 2013 to 2020 period. The decline in emissions reported in 2020 is due to COVID-19 restrictions causing plant shutdowns and reduced production.
In October 2016, New Zealand adopted the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to phase down hydrofluorocarbon consumption and production along with nearly 200 other parties worldwide. New Zealand ratified the amendment in October 2019 and it entered into force for New Zealand on 1 January 2020. |
|
Agriculture |
Agriculture emissions total 315.1 Mt CO2-e for the period 2013 – 2020.
Agriculture emissions have remained stable over 2013 to 2020. This is largely due to decreases in the sheep population being offset by modest increases in cattle numbers. This has subsequently resulted in greater use of synthetic fertiliser. |
|
Waste |
Waste emissions total 27.4 Mt CO2-e for the period 2013 – 2020.
Waste emissions declined over 2013 to 2020. This was mainly due to the changing composition of managed landfills, where a decreasing proportion of the waste disposed contains readily decomposable material. This more than makes up for the overall increase in the volume of waste disposed. |
The Crown holds over 28 million surplus international units from the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period (surplus CP1 units). In mid-2020, the Government cancelled 95.4 million of these units that were of low or questionable quality. Additionally, around 0.3 million units have been cancelled since 2016 through voluntary cancellations. The table below provides the detailed changes that have occurred since the CP1 target was met.
|
Surplus CP1 units (as at 29 March 2022) |
28,032,528 |
|---|---|
|
Resulting from: |
|
|
Units retained from CP1 |
123,749,012 |
|
Units cancelled by the Government in mid-2020 |
95,400,000 |
|
Units cancelled through voluntary cancellations (since 2016) |
316,484 |
Changes in sector emissions estimates since the previous net position update in April 2021 are summarised in the table below.
The largest change is in the contribution from forestry activities. This is mainly due to being able to calculate and include the contribution from forest management activities in pre-1990 forests. New Zealand chose to apply period end accounting for our 2020 target. The forest management reference level, against which forest management activities are accounted for, was calculated for the full period. Forest management activities are subject to fluctuations over time which impacts emissions, and therefore unsuited to annual assessments against a commitment period reference level. Since the 2020 Net Position update has inventory estimates for all commitment period years, the accounting quantity from forest management activities is now able to be quantified for inclusion in the net position.
|
Mt CO2-e /millions of units |
April 2021 |
Change |
April 2022 |
|
Energy |
259.4 |
-1.4 |
258.0 |
|
Industrial processes and product use |
40.3 |
-1.2 |
39.1 |
|
Agriculture |
314.8 |
+0.3 |
315.1 |
|
Waste |
27.6 |
-0.2 |
27.4 |
|
Gross emissions |
642.0 |
-2.4 |
639.6 |
|
Carbon budget |
509.8 |
-0.0 |
509.8 |
|
Forestry activities |
109.2 |
+14.1 |
123.3 |
|
Surplus CP1 units |
28.3 |
+0.3 |
28.0 |
|
Total |
647.3 |
+13.8 |
661.1 |
|
|
|||
|
Net position |
5.3 |
+16.2 |
21.5 |
Note: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding to one decimal place.