Updated emissions projections to 2050 released
New projections show New Zealand is on track to meet its first and second emissions budget
The Ministry for the Environment releases emissions projections annually. These projections provide a snapshot in time and help us understand how we are tracking toward our climate change targets.
New Zealand’s domestic climate change targets are set out in law.
Projections are not predictions. All projections are inherently uncertain, and the further out in time a projection is made, the more uncertain it becomes.
Assumptions such as the size of the population and economy, new technologies, or even how favourable the weather will be to generating hydroelectricity can all change over time and will affect how close projections may be to what happens over time.
This year’s projections show New Zealand is making good progress toward its first two emissions budgets:
- We can achieve our first and second emissions budgets with increased surpluses or “buffers” compared to 2024 projections.
- The first emissions budget (2022 – 2025) is 290Mt. Projections show that we can reach 282.2Mt. This is under the budget limit, or a ‘buffer’, of 7.8Mt.
- The second emissions budget (2026 – 2030) is 305Mt. Projections show that we can reach 300.5Mt. This is under the budget limit, or a ‘buffer’ of 4.5Mt.
This year’s projections show we can meet our 2050 net zero target for long-lived gases and we could be slightly below net zero in 2050.
The projections also show we can meet our 2050 biogenic methane target, and we are on track to achieve a 24 per cent reduction in biogenic methane emissions by 2050.
However, since 2050 is so far in the future, there’s a high degree of uncertainty around these projections.
For this year’s projections, we have adopted a scenario modelling approach beyond 2030 to illustrate a range of possible outcomes by 2050. These are based on differing levels of efficacy and adoption of technologies to reduce agricultural emissions.
Emissions projections cannot be updated in real time – instead they provide an insight into our progress based on a moment in time. The next update will be in late 2026.