Updated emissions projections to 2050 released

The updated projections are based on:

• data from the 2023 submission of New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2021).
• policies implemented or adopted by the Government and economic conditions as of 1 July 2023. The projections don’t capture any changes to policies or conditions since that date.

Graph data file [Excel, 428 KB]

(March 2024: data has been updated to reflect the correct historical data for the energy sector, aligned with the 2023 Greenhouse Gas Inventory. This did not change the final projections.)

The projections estimate that by 2050, Aotearoa New Zealand would have reduced its annual gross emissions by 29.9 per cent compared to 2021 based on policies and conditions as of 1 July 2023. 

Net emissions are projected to reduce by 61.6 per cent compared to 2021 (the most recent year for which we have emissions data).

These projections, and the graph above, estimate emissions of all types of greenhouse gas including biogenic methane. New Zealand’s 2050 target is for net zero greenhouse gas emissions excluding biogenic methane.

While not shown on the graph the projections estimate that net emissions excluding biogenic methane would be between -13.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂e) and 39.9 Mt CO₂e in 2050 based on policies and conditions as of 1 July 2023.

Read more on New Zealand's projected greenhouse gas emissions to 2050

The Government has set its first three stepping stones along the path to the 2050 target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions, excluding biogenic methane.

Meeting each of these budgets will make it more likely that we will achieve the 2050 target.

These projections estimate that, based on policies and measures as of 1 July 2023, Aotearoa New Zealand would be on track to meet its emissions budgets.  

However, projections are not predictions. They are a snapshot of estimated future emissions at a point in time.

Many assumptions underlying the modelling can change such as carbon prices, economic conditions, population growth or even how favourable the weather is for generating hydroelectricity.

This means that all projections but especially longer-term projections – such as for the third budget period or out to 2050 – are uncertain.

Continuing to reduce our emissions will give us the best chance of meeting our emissions budgets and our longer-term targets, even if underlying circumstances or assumptions change.

We update projections of future emissions annually to track progress towards our emissions reduction targets as circumstances change.

Projections based on the 2024 submission of New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) will be released in 2024.