New report highlights pressures on Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate  

• Read the report
• Latest atmosphere and climate indicators [Stats NZ website]
• Four story maps look at the impacts our changing climate is having on the plants and animals that call Aotearoa New Zealand home.  

The Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ have released the latest, three-yearly update about the state of Aotearoa’s atmosphere and climate.

Further evidence that emissions from human activities are putting pressure on our climate

Our atmosphere and climate 2023 provides further evidence that emissions from human activities are putting pressure on our climate, which is adversely impacting the environment, communities, Māori interests, infrastructure, and the economy.

The Ministry’s Deputy Secretary – Joint Evidence, Data and Insights Group, Natasha Lewis, says eight of the ten warmest years recorded in Aotearoa up to 2022 have been in the last decade.

“Even minor changes in our climate can have big effects on our environment. Rising temperatures have a significant effect on agriculture, energy demand, ecosystems, and recreation,” she says.

Variations in rainfall, more frequent droughts and ocean warming to record levels

Aotearoa is also experiencing variations in rainfall, more frequent droughts and ocean warming to record levels. Glaciers are in retreat and sea levels around parts of the country rose twice as fast in the last 60 years as they did in the previous 60 years. The frequency of extreme temperature events in Aotearoa has doubled due to human activities.

“This has consequences for the things we value most, our safety and security, the places we live, our livelihoods and economy and our wellbeing.”

About 750,000 New Zealanders and 500,000 buildings worth more than $145 billion are near rivers and in coastal areas already exposed to extreme flooding. Major urban centres, sites of cultural significance, taonga (treasured) species, and food security are also at risk in these areas.

“Many sectors of our economy rely on natural resources such as water, which depend heavily on rainfall and temperature or are in areas that are prone to flooding. The cost of responding to extreme weather events is likely to increase.”

Impact on biodiversity and ecosystems

A key theme of the report is the impact that climate change is having on biodiversity and ecosystems. This natural infrastructure acts as a buffer against the worst effects of climate change. For example, restored wetlands can absorb the shock of storm surges and help to protect communities against sea level rise. Native forests and restored floodplains reconnected to wetlands can slow and retain water during storms, helping to reduce flooding.

“Human activities are driving biodiversity losses. It is now a question of how close we are to tipping points, beyond which large and, in some cases, irreversible changes will be unavoidable.”

Looking ahead

Building on Our atmosphere and climate 2020, this report also includes a series of evidence-based assessments about the outlook for atmosphere and climate.  

“Looking ahead, as well as behind, represents an important shift in our approach to environmental reporting. We hope that this information helps people and organisations to understand climate change better and plan for the future.”

The report brings together recently updated Stats NZ indicator data and insights from research literature to highlight pressures on the atmosphere and climate. These can cause, or contribute to, changes in the state of the environment, which have various impacts. Key insights from the report include:

Pressures

• Emissions from human activities put the most pressure on our atmosphere and climate.
• Our gross greenhouse gas emissions increased between 1990 and 2021, though they have remained relatively stable since 2006, despite increases in population and economic activity.
• In 2021, gross emissions further declined by 0.7 percent compared to 2020, largely due to decreases in emissions across the agriculture sector.
• The two largest contributors to our gross emissions in 2021 were the agriculture sector at 49 percent, and the energy sector (including transport) at 41 percent.
• Methane and nitrous oxide, largely from agricultural sources, made up over half of our gross emissions (43 and 10 percent respectively).
• The remaining emissions consisted mostly of carbon dioxide (45 percent), largely from Energy and the Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sectors.
• Our net emissions (total emissions plus any emissions added or removed by land use, land-use change, and forestry sector) increased by 25 percent between 1990 and 2021, due to the underlying increase in gross emissions.

State

• Annual average temperature in Aotearoa increased by 1.26 (± 0.27) degrees Celsius between 1909 and 2022 (114 years), with eight of the 10 warmest years on record in the last decade.
• Agriculture and horticulture growing seasons are lengthening, and frost days are declining in most places in Aotearoa.
• Annual rainfall during the last 60 years has changed in most places in Aotearoa, with the south becoming wetter and the north and east becoming drier. Extreme rainfall is also changing in most places.
• The frequency of medium-term (agricultural) drought is increasing in many places in Aotearoa.
• Extreme winds are decreasing at most sites in Aotearoa, which may be due to a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase.
• Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense. The frequency of extreme temperature events in Aotearoa has doubled due to human influence.

Impacts

• Annual mean coastal sea levels rose faster (relative to land) between 1961 and 2020 than between 1901 and 1960 at all four longer-term monitoring sites around Aotearoa.
• Changing ocean currents and rising sea levels have led to a loss of nesting sites for various shorebirds and declining populations of tītī (sooty shearwater or mutton-bird).
• The air-marine heatwaves in 2017/18 and 2021/22 caused bleaching and necrosis of sponges, mass mortality of kororā (little penguin) in Bay of Plenty and widespread loss of rimurapa (southern bull kelp).
• Spatial mapping shows that sites which are of significance to Māori in Taranaki, Auckland, the Coromandel, northern Hawkes Bay, Tasman, and parts of Canterbury and Otago are at risk of coastal erosion.
• The Māori economy is particularly vulnerable to climate change because 50 percent of Aotearoa’s fishing quota, 40 percent of forestry, 30 percent of lamb production, 30 percent of sheep and beef production, 10 percent of dairy production and 10 percent of kiwifruit production is in Māori ownership.
• About 750,000 people and 500,000 buildings, worth more than $145 billion, are near rivers and in coastal areas already exposed to extreme flooding.
• Treasury estimates that the cost of repairing damage caused by Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland floods in 2023 to be between $9-$14.5 billion.

Outlook

• It is highly likely the world will not meet Paris Agreement long-term goals of limiting global temperature increase during the 21st century to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
• It is highly likely that Aotearoa will experience increased temperature and changing rainfall patterns until 2050 and that extreme weather events will become increasingly frequent and severe.
• It is almost certain that climate change will continue to increase risk to Aotearoa’s native and endemic species.
• It is highly likely that climate change will continue to adversely impact our infrastructure and communities, threatening our wellbeing, connection to place and livelihoods.
• It is highly likely that health and wellbeing outcomes will deteriorate because of climate change and biodiversity loss, including the introduction of infectious diseases and food insecurity.
• It is highly likely that climate-related impacts will displace Māori in some places, disrupting the transmission of location-specific mātauranga Māori and tikanga practices.

Alongside the Our atmosphere and climate 2023 report, the Ministry has also used the digital storytelling platform ArcGIS StoryMaps to look at the impacts our changing climate is having on the plants and animals that call Aotearoa New Zealand home.  

 Four stories, which include, photos, maps, videos, graphics and interactive features, show how climate change is causing:     

• our glaciers to disappear and our snowlines to retreat, impacting biodiversity 
• trees in our forests to produce more seeds, increasing the number of pests that predate on birds 
• our oceans to warm, rise and become more acidic, which is impacting marine species 
• stronger cyclones, hotter heatwaves and more frequent droughts and wildfires that result in losses and damages for nature and people.   

Waikato University’s Science Learning Hub has also produced resources for teachers and students to complement the official report.  

For further information and requests for comments about the report, contact the Ministry for the Environment media team:

• 027 231 6930 
• media@mfe.govt.nz

For technical information about the environment indicators, contact the Stats NZ media team: 

• 021 285 9191
• media@stats.govt.nz

The Environmental Reporting Act 2015 requires the Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ to publish environmental domain reports independently of Ministers of the Crown.   

The Act also sets the publication cycles for reports and these cannot be changed. Our last two reports on atmosphere and climate were published in October 2017 and October 2020. Our atmosphere and climate 2023 updates these reports and continues the three-yearly reporting cycle.    

For more information see Environmental-reporting