Emissions projections corrected
New Zealand remains on track for first and second emissions budgets under corrected projections of emissions between now and 2050
The Ministry for the Environment publishes annual projections estimating New Zealand’s future greenhouse gas emissions to 2050. These projections were last published in October 2025.
See updated emissions projections to 2050 released.
On 29 January 2026, we updated our 2025 projections to correct the transport sector emissions projections. The corrected projections continue to show New Zealand is on track to meet its first and second emissions budgets.
See New Zealand's projected greenhouse emissions.
The January 2026 amendment to the second emissions reduction plan uses the corrected projections.
The correction resolves a missing figure relating to the proportion of diesel vehicles in New Zealand in our projections calculations. This had led to an incorrect calculation, under-reporting the diesel share of the national fleet and over-reporting the petrol share. The correction does not reflect any change in transport policy, and is unrelated to the January 2026 amendment to the second emissions reduction plan.
We’ve made the correction to ensure we are providing the most accurate information possible.
This correction has resulted in a small increase to New Zealand’s overall projected emissions between now and 2050.
New Zealand has set three emissions budgets – limits on the amount of emissions it produces in a period of time – to step us towards the 2050 net zero goal.
See emissions budgets and the emissions reduction plan.
New Zealand’s emissions are projected to be within the ‘buffer’ for the first and second emissions budgets. The correction reduces the buffer New Zealand has for meeting its first emissions budget to 7.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e), rather than 7.8 Mt CO2-e as under the 2025 projections. It reduces the buffer for the second emissions budget to 3.6 Mt CO2-e, rather than 4.5 Mt CO2-e.
We will release our next scheduled annual update of emissions projections by December 2026.