New Zealand’s projected greenhouse gas emissions to 2050

Aotearoa New Zealand has both domestic and international greenhouse gas emission reduction targets up to the year 2050.

See emission reduction targets

Projections are uncertain but are based on the best information we have to help us understand how we are tracking towards our targets.

The projections on this page are informed by the 2024 submission of New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2022 and reflect economic conditions and policies in late 2024. 

See New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2022

This page shows two scenarios.

• ‘With existing measures’ (WEM) reflects the economic conditions and policies in late 2024.  
• ‘With additional measures’ (WAM) shows the impact of the additional emissions reductions generated by the policies and measures in the final second emissions reduction plan. This plan sets out policies and measures to help New Zealand meet its second emissions budget for 2026-2030.  

Central projections are given for each scenario, along with a low and high estimate. This range reflects the underlying sensitivity in the projections. 

Download the data for the projections.

Domestic target under the Climate Change Response Act 

Aotearoa New Zealand’s domestic target under the Climate Change Response Act is: 

• Net zero emissions of all greenhouse gas emissions other than biogenic methane by 2050. 
• 24 to 47 per cent reduction below 2017 biogenic methane emissions by 2050, including 10 per cent reduction below 2017 biogenic methane emissions by 2030. 

See Greenhouse gas emissions targets and reporting.

Target accounting emissions projections for 2050 (long lived gases) (Mt CO₂-e) 

Biogenic methane projections, per target year (Mt CO₂-e) 

Emissions budgets 

Emissions budgets are stepping stones along the path to the 2050 target. Meeting each of our emissions budgets will make it more likely that we will ultimately achieve this target. 

See Emissions budgets and the emissions reduction plan.

Target accounting emissions projections for Emissions Budget (EB)1, 2 and 3 (Mt CO₂-e) 

The Government has also set an emissions target, Target 9, as part of its nine Government targets to focus the public sector on improved results. Progress on this target is reported quarterly. 

See Government target 9 quarterly reporting

International target under the Paris Agreement

Aotearoa New Zealand’s first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC1) is to reduce net emissions to 50 per cent below gross 2005 levels by 2030.  

New Zealand’s NDC1 is managed as a multi-year emissions budget. The target corresponds to a provisional emissions budget of 579 Mt CO2-e over the period 2021 to 2030 (the NDC1 provisional budget). The NDC1 provisional budget has been updated to reflect technical improvements to emissions estimates in New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory. 

This target was set to reflect New Zealand’s highest possible ambition under the Paris Agreement.  The NDC1 is higher than the emissions budgets which cover the same period. 

See Nationally Determined Contribution

Target accounting emissions projections for NDC1 target (Mt CO₂-e) 

A full account of progress towards New Zealand’s commitments under the Paris Agreement is provided in New Zealand’s first Biennial Transparency Report.

The projections reported in the Biennial Transparency Report differ slightly from those presented on this page. Cut-off dates to meet the statutory deadline meant some information included in the projected emissions on this page were not able to be included in the Biennial Transparency Report. The projections on this page include the impact of second emissions reduction plan policies and updated data, and are up to date as of late 2024. 

See New Zealand's first Biennial Transparency Report.

We follow specific international reporting rules when developing projections for international reporting and tracking NDC progress, that differ from how we track our domestic emissions budgets. This includes only using New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory for historical emissions and including Tokelau’s emissions. 

Data 

These projections use the 100-year time horizon global warming potentials (GWPs) for the non-carbon dioxide gases based on the values provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).  

The use of 100-year GWPs provides a standardised measure to compare the warming impact of different greenhouse gases over a consistent timeframe, helping assess their contributions to climate change in a meaningful and comparable way. 

See greenhouse gas emissions targets and reporting for definitions of gross, net and target accounting emissions.

Modelling 

The information on this page is based on the 2024 submission of New Zealand's Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2022. The projections have been developed using the Emissions in New Zealand (ENZ) model. The ENZ model is a bottom-up model that includes data to represent individual industries and technologies and has been used widely in New Zealand, including by the Climate Change Commission He Pou a Rangi for its demonstration and other pathways and advice.  

We have used the ENZ model to develop the 2024 projections due to its flexibility in modelling alternative scenarios and its capacity for rapid updates with new assumptions. The ENZ modelling was calibrated to agency sector models, to ensure its accuracy and that the projections are fit for purpose. 

This adaptability allows for more timely tracking of emissions, supporting ongoing monitoring and evaluation of New Zealand’s progress toward meeting emissions budgets and targets under the second emissions reduction plan.  

High and low estimates 

High and low projection estimates were developed by adjusting key assumptions, like population growth and gross domestic product, to see how much these factors influence long-term emissions. This produced WEM and WAM high and low scenarios. 

All projections are inherently uncertain and become more uncertain the further out they are made. 

The underlying assumptions can change like:

• economic and population growth
• the price of emissions in New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS)
• technological advancement
• how favourable the weather is to generating hydroelectricity

The projections assume an NZU price path estimated by using the ETS market model to calculate the difference in future prices resulting from the 2024 changes to ETS settings (auction volumes and price controls). This price difference was used to adjust the baseline price path. It results in prices peaking at $92.60 (in 2023 $ values) in 2030 and falling to $52 by 2050. This is unlikely to reflect actual market prices which are dynamic and changeable to reflect market conditions. This is particularly relevant for the third emissions budget period and creates additional uncertainty for this budget. The NZ ETS price assumption will be reassessed in future projections modelling. 

Continuing to reduce our emissions will give us the best chance of meeting our emissions budgets and our longer-term targets, even if underlying circumstances or assumptions change.