Types of climate scenarios and when to use them

Global climate scenarios

• Describe possible climate futures at a global scale. They tend to focus on international policy direction, global market trends, and technology shifts.
• May be useful for comparing how a particular policy, decision or framework could play out in, or interact with, the wider global context.
• Will provide little to no narrative about possible futures for Aotearoa New Zealand specifically.

• Describe possible climate futures for Aotearoa New Zealand. They tend to focus on national policy direction, market trends, and technology shifts.
• May be useful for comparing how a particular policy, decision or framework could play out in, interact with, or align with, possible futures for Aotearoa New Zealand. 

• Sector climate scenarios describe possible climate futures for specific sectors within Aotearoa New Zealand. For example, for the tourism sector, agricultural sector, or the retail sector.
• Sector climate scenarios tend to focus on sector-specific policy direction, market trends, technology shifts. They usually describe climate-related risks and opportunities relevant to the sector.
• Sector climate scenarios may be useful if the policy, decision, or strategy you wish to test is clearly relates to a specific sector (or to multiple specific sectors).

This list only includes climate sector scenarios for Aotearoa New Zealand that were publicly available on the date this webpage was last updated.

Read more about sector scenarios due for future publication (opens in new window) [External Reporting Board website]

Understanding what policy or decision you want to test will help you decide which climate scenarios to use.

Before you decide, consider how they will be applied. How they are applied can take different forms.

Read about how to apply climate scenarios in practice 

Guidance to Develop Climate Change Scenarios for Public Sector Planning and Policy: GNS Science Consultancy Report 2023. (To be published) 

Once you have decided which type of climate scenario meets your organisation's needs, you have the option of using existing climate scenarios or developing your own.

Questions to ask yourself

• Do you have the time, resources, and expertise  to develop your own scenarios? 
• Is the policy, decision, or strategy you want to test niche or very specific? If yes, you should explore if developing your own scenarios is a viable option. 
• Is there a publicly available sector scenario (or multiple scenarios) for Aotearoa New Zealand that is relevant to the policy, decision or strategy you want to test? Is the existing sector scenario (or scenarios) sufficient for your purposes? 

• Requires less time and fewer resources (compared to developing your own scenarios).
• Requires expertise to understand which scenario(s) is best for your situation and how to apply them. 
• Existing scenarios are not tailored to your organisation’s specific context. 
• You may wish to alter certain aspects of existing scenarios or combine multiple scenarios together.  

See existing scenarios

Read about using existing scenarios

Read more about the limitations of existing scenarios in The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios report) [Institute and Faculty of Actuaries]

• Requires sufficient time and resources. 
• Requires sufficient expertise and governance oversight throughout the scenario development process. 
• Produces scenarios tailored to your organisation and designed specifically to test your policy, strategy or area of interest.  
• Your scenarios are designed with your focal question in mind. 
• Your scenarios can be tailored to include all available narrative information and variables relevant to your specific context. 
• Developing your own scenarios enables you to find and draw together the latest information and data.