4. Towards a better understanding of our marine environment

Aotearoa New Zealand’s coastline and ocean are changing faster than ever because of climate change and human activity. These changes affect ecosystems, communities and the economy. To respond effectively, we need knowledge that connects global drivers to local impacts. This can help us to make decisions that anticipate change, protect what matters and make the most of opportunities for resilience and restoration.

New Zealand has a rich and growing base of knowledge about the marine environment, built through the efforts of iwi, local and central government, public research organisations, industry and community groups. This collective effort has already delivered valuable insights into the state of our coasts and ocean. However, this knowledge is uneven, and some critical areas remain poorly understood. Closing these gaps is about not just developing better science, but enabling smarter choices, reducing risk, and creating opportunities for climate resilience, a sustainable marine economy and cultural wellbeing.

Building on what we know

Our understanding of the marine environment is growing, supported by long-term monitoring and modelling, and by bringing in mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) alongside other scientific approaches to offer a more inclusive and localised understanding of the marine environment (O’Callaghan et al, 2019). Emerging technologies such as automation, artificial intelligence and remote sensing are opening up new possibilities for collecting and analysing data.

To make the most of these opportunities, we need a reporting system that is:

• streamlined – focused on the most pressing issues, and tailored towards the needs of decision-makers
• efficient – using automation and digital tools to improve data capture and quality
• strategic – building climate and ocean literacy across organisations so risks and opportunities are recognised early
• connected and inclusive – sharing data across agencies and regions and embedding mātauranga Māori in ways that respect tikanga Māori (customs and protocols) and protect sensitive knowledge.

International collaboration and learning from global best practice will help ensure our approaches remain fit for purpose.

Closing every gap is neither possible nor necessary. Instead, we should take a strategic approach and prioritise areas where better knowledge will make the biggest difference to decisions and outcomes. Some of these areas are outlined below.

Understanding compounding pressures

Climate change does not function alone – it amplifies other stressors like overfishing, pollution and habitat loss. Without an integrated view, cumulative impacts are underestimated, leading to delayed responses and higher long-term costs.

We need to:

• combine data on climate variables and local stressors with ecosystem indicators, to track cumulative impacts
• develop linked models that show how climate, land-based pressures, ocean circulation and biodiversity interact – and use scenarios to test future risks and management options
• improve early detection of emerging threats such as invasive species, harmful algal blooms and ocean acidification hotspots, so we can act before problems escalate.

Managing the front line – coastlines and blue carbon

The effects of climate change are most visible in coastal areas, where the impacts on people are also the most immediate. At the same time, these areas hold opportunities for carbon storage (blue carbon) and natural protection from storms and erosion.

We need to:

• assess the extent and condition of key coastal habitats such as seagrass beds, kelp forests, and wetlands, and restore them where this provides multiple benefits
• understand the potential for blue carbon sequestration and the conditions that support it
• bring mātauranga Māori and tohu (environmental indicators) into coastal monitoring and management.

Connecting global drivers to local impacts

Environmental decision-makers need confidence that global signals such as warming oceans or shifting currents translate into practical, place-based implications for policy and investment.

We need to:

• downscale climate and ocean projections to regional and local decision points
• use indicators that link environmental change to consequences for people, as well as for places and species of value
• make data open and accessible so local partners can act on the same evidence base as central agencies.

Good decisions depend on what we measure, how often we measure it and how quickly we can use it. Priority improvements include:

• core inventories and baselines – expanding national coverage for biodiversity, habitats and pressures so we know what is where
• monitoring frequency and coverage – establishing long-term measurements to detect trends and sudden shifts, complemented by real-time data where risk is high
• emerging technologies – using remote sensing, autonomous platforms and artificial intelligence to improve coverage and reduce costs
• integrated knowledge – supporting mātauranga Māori and community-led monitoring alongside instrumented networks
• open access and interoperability – investing in platforms and standards so data can be shared and reused across agencies and regions.

Better data and models will improve forecasts of species shifts, ocean circulation changes, and coastal flooding. This, in turn, will enable proactive planning for infrastructure, fisheries, conservation and livelihoods.

Closing knowledge gaps enables action. With better knowledge, we can have more informed engagement with decision-makers to:

• plan adaptively – creating flexible, long-term plans that adjust as new information emerges, with clear early-warning thresholds for intervention
• protect and restore habitats – expanding marine protected areas, restoring degraded ecosystems, and prioritising areas less affected by warming or acidification
• manage fisheries sustainably – reducing overfishing and bycatch, and adopting harvest strategies that respond to changing productivity
• use climate-informed spatial planning – guiding zoning and activity restrictions based on projections and species distribution models, and adjusting as conditions change
• deploy early-warning systems – monitoring for marine heatwaves, acidification and low-oxygen events (hypoxia), and acting quickly when risks rise 
• strengthen genetic and population resilience – maintaining breeding habitats and connectivity, and considering tools such as assisted migration for aquaculture species where appropriate.

Moving towards a better understanding of our marine environment means more than filling data gaps. It is about creating the knowledge systems we need to act with confidence. By connecting global drivers to local realities, bringing mātauranga Māori alongside western science and using new technologies to make information accessible and timely, we can move from reactive responses to proactive planning. This will help us protect what matters most, restore what has been lost and build resilience for the future.