3. Impacts of our changing ocean on people, society and the economy

Aotearoa New Zealand’s coasts and oceans play a major role in how we live, work and connect with each other, and with the natural world. But as the climate changes, so does the marine environment, and we are increasingly feeling the consequences in our homes, communities and industries.

Rising sea levels and more frequent, intense storms are placing coastal communities at greater risk of inundation, infrastructure damage, and coastal flooding and erosion. Homes, roads and public spaces in low-lying areas are becoming more vulnerable. Some communities are already facing difficult decisions around long-term resilience.

Cultural and recreational connections to the coast are also under pressure. Beaches, estuaries and coastal tourism sites are places of gathering, identity and wellbeing. For Māori, many coastal sites are important wāhi taonga, with deep ancestral significance. As these places change or become less accessible, the impacts are felt not only in terms of land use, but also in the erosion of cultural heritage and community cohesion.

Climate change also presents both risks and opportunities for marine primary industries. Warmer waters, shifting species distributions and ocean acidification are affecting fisheries and aquaculture operations, with potential implications for productivity, biosecurity and market access. At the same time, innovation and adaptation in these sectors – such as low-emissions aquaculture and climate-resilient species – offer pathways to future resilience and economic sustainability.

Changes in the ocean contribute to more extreme weather, flooding and inundation of coastal areas

• The environment provides the foundation for our homes, infrastructure and livelihoods. It offers the resources and stability needed for a thriving society. However, environmental change – in particular, climate change – poses serious threats to this foundation (see Our environment 2025).
• Extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and storms damage housing and infrastructure, particularly in flood-prone areas (see Our environment 2025).
• Sea levels in New Zealand are rising, and extreme weather events such as storms are projected to become more frequent and severe (see section 1). In low-lying coastal areas, higher storm surges are exacerbating the effects of flooding from heavy rainfall (NIWA, nd-c).
• Rising sea-surface temperatures in the Southern Pacific Ocean are providing more energy to drive extreme weather systems. La Niña climate episodes are associated with warmer sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and more rain in New Zealand, from subtropical sources of rainfall, ex-tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers (see Our atmosphere and climate 2023). La Niña episodes are projected to become more extreme and may occur more frequently with climate change (Aldridge & Bell, 2025; see section 1). The future will potentially bring more intense tropical cyclones and heavier rainfall, increasing risks for vulnerable communities in New Zealand (Gibson et al, 2025).

Coastal homes, infrastructure and assets face an increasing risk of damage and loss due to sea-level rise

• Many New Zealand homes and critical assets are located on the coasts. These are already vulnerable to the increasing damage and loss due to the cascading risks arising from coastal erosion and flooding (Awatere et al, 2021; Lawrence et al, 2020). The compounding impacts of king tides combined with sea-level rise will result in regular small-scale surface flooding, and king tides coinciding with storm events will result in major tide-related flooding events (Stephens et al, 2020).
• Sea-level rise will increasingly affect our homes and properties in low-lying coastal communities. In 2023, approximately 219,000 residential properties were in coastal inundation and inland flood zones, representing $180 billion in assets. An estimated 1,300 residential properties in the coastal inundation zone (representing $900 million in assets at current property prices) will experience greater than 20 percent damage in one or more extreme events between 2026 and 2060 (Storey et al, 2025).
• Coastal erosion of approximately 5 to 30 metres has occurred along approximately 1,500 metres of the shore of the Waiau River estuarine lagoon in Southland, because of a storm event on 21 September 2023. This erosion has occurred in front of private properties along Bluecliffs Beach Road, causing a risk to these properties, with a potential loss of land, dwellings and outbuildings (Tonkin + Taylor, 2024).
• Sea-level rise also puts much of our coastal infrastructure at risk. In 2019, 2,273 kilometres of roads, 5,572 kilometres of water pipes, 2,457 square kilometres of land, and buildings with a combined replacement value of $26.18 billion (as of 2016) were assessed as vulnerable if sea levels rise by 0.6 metres (Paulik et al, 2019). Roads, including state highways and bridges, are essential for transporting goods and services, and for keeping communities connected. Transport hubs, like ports and airports, are also critical to our way of life and our industries, including fishing, imports and exports.
• Critical services for health and sanitation, such as stormwater and wastewater, will be affected (Feng et al, 2021; Kool et al, 2020; PCE, 2015). Sea-level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion and flooding are just some of the effects of climate change that are expected to increasingly compromise wastewater infrastructure in New Zealand. This will exacerbate other challenges facing many of our wastewater networks due to ageing, under-design and deferred maintenance (Coxon, 2024; Hughes et al, 2021; Kirchoff & Watson, 2019).
• Landfills have been assessed nationally for their exposure to coastal erosion and coastal inundation. Under current climate conditions, 9 percent of landfills (288) are potentially exposed to coastal inundation; with a sea-level rise of 0.4 metres, this increases to 12 percent of landfills (379). Using coastal edge proximity as a proxy for coastal erosion, 3 percent of landfills (111) already lie within the average high-tide mark, with 8 percent (274) within 100 metres of the coast (Lindsey & Cartwright, 2024).
• Changes to climate cycles and weather, combined with sea-level rise, could increase the intensity and frequency of catastrophic storm and flooding events that cause widespread damage to coastal homes and infrastructure. For example, in 2023, Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland Anniversary Day floods each resulted in losses more than 10 times the value of previous insured losses. These increasing risks are likely to drive higher reinsurance costs for insurers, and higher insurance costs for households (Aldridge & Bell, 2025).
• Coastal storms and flooding events are predicted to grow more frequent and severe, placing pressure on natural systems and built infrastructure (Haasnoot et al, 2021; Lawrence et al, 2024). Nature-based solutions, like offshore reef and wetland restoration to reduce wave energy and store floodwaters, and hard engineering such as artificial reefs, seawalls and levees can mitigate the effects of sea-level rise, but are predicted to become increasingly difficult to maintain as sea levels continue to rise (Haasnoot et al, 2021; Lawrence et al, 2024).

Wāhi taonga and important coastal places for identity and connection are affected by climate change, rising seas and coastal erosion

• The natural beauty of our environment, including mountains, rivers and coasts, is central to New Zealand’s culture and national identity. As individuals and communities, we connect to our local environment in different ways, including by walking along our estuaries and beaches, and swimming or fishing in the ocean. Tangata whenua are connected to various parts of the environment through whakapapa (ancestral ties). As the environment changes, these connections change – whether those changes are sudden and noticeable, or gradual and less obvious (see Our environment 2025).
• Many of our coastal ecosystems are changing or being lost due to climate change and other processes, including coastal hardening to protect coastal infrastructure from rising seas (see section 2). The loss of coastal ecosystems and the iconic species they support – especially in urban and rural areas, where these may already be rare – results in a permanent loss of connection to this part of the natural environment.
• Wāhi taonga (culturally important places and infrastructure), such as marae, kāinga (homesteads), urupā (burial sites) and sites of mahinga kai (traditional food-gathering), are vulnerable to damage from flooding, erosion, wildfires and other extreme weather events. Many of these sites are important for cultural activities. Damage to these sites reduces accessibility to place and cultural practices and can affect the Māori knowledge associated with them (Awatere et al, 2021; King et al, 2007). These impacts are exacerbated by climate change. Around the country, 191 marae are within 1 kilometre of the coast and, in the Bay of Plenty alone, 41 urupā are within 1 kilometre of the coast (Bailey-Winiata, 2021).
• Our ecosystems and the wildlife they support provide opportunities for recreation. For many New Zealanders, having access to nature is a major advantage of living here. Around half of the New Zealand population visited protected areas, including coastal reserves and beaches, each month over the 2023/24 summer (DOC, 2021, 2024).
• Many destinations for outdoor recreation and nature tourism are at risk from rising seas. In a 2019 assessment of public conservation sites and infrastructure, 50 amenity areas (eg, campgrounds and playgrounds), 127 buildings, 23 water systems and 126 structures (eg, boardwalks, bridges and jetties) were assessed as potentially vulnerable to flooding from the sea (Tait, 2019). Portions of four of New Zealand’s 11 iconic Great Walks (the Abel Tasman Coast, Heaphy, Queen Charlotte and Rakiura tracks), along with 17 other walking and tramping tracks, were also assessed as moderately to highly vulnerable (Tait, 2019).
• Sea-level rise threatens many of New Zealand’s archaeological sites. Of the 9,054 mapped sites in the coastal zone, 1,564 are vulnerable to flooding from the sea and 1,954 are highly vulnerable to erosion driven by sea-level rise. Erosion is a particularly serious threat because it permanently removes sites, erasing any evidence they could provide for archaeological investigation. The areas at greatest risk of erosion in the North Island are around Taranaki, Auckland, Coromandel and northern Hawke’s Bay, and in the South Island are around Tasman and parts of Otago and Canterbury (Jones et al, 2024).

The effects of climate change, combined with other pressures on our coasts, can affect our health

• Many New Zealanders engage in outdoor recreation, and we get important cultural and health benefits from activities such as walking, swimming, waka ama (traditional Polynesian canoes), surfing, kayaking, fishing and gathering shellfish. Our communities’ engagement and connection with the environment can be impaired if these activities cannot be enjoyed safely (see Environment Aotearoa 2022).  
• Climate change, extreme weather events and degradation of the environment all pose threats to human health, increasing the risks of, for example, food, water and energy insecurity, poor air quality and contaminated water (see Our environment 2025). For information on water quality state and trends, see indicator: Coastal and estuarine water quality and Our marine environment 2022. 
• Increasing sea-surface temperatures, ocean acidification and changing currents are likely to alter the occurrence, frequency, range and toxicity of some harmful algal blooms in New Zealand (Rhodes & Smith, 2022). Under future climate conditions, harmful algal species already detected in New Zealand waters may bloom, and new species may arrive (Rolton et al, 2022). Blooms of the algal species Alexandrium pacificum have already increased as a result of more frequent and intense marine heatwaves (Greenough et al, 2025). These blooms have implications for the behaviour, growth rates and mortality of juvenile mussels, impacting wild populations and aquaculture practices (Greenough et al, 2025).  
• Some species of marine microalgae produce toxins when they bloom. These toxins can accumulate in fish and shellfish and make anyone who consumes them seriously ill. Contact with these toxins during swimming can also cause skin, eye and lung irritations. Many toxic algae species are present in New Zealand, and several large blooms have caused serious illness in people who consumed wild-gathered shellfish, and had the potential to cause illness in swimmers over the past several decades (Rhodes & Smith, 2022). To protect public health, the Ministry for Primary Industries monitors the main recreational shellfish harvesting areas for toxic blooms and imposes harvest bans when they are detected (MPI, nd-a).  
• Increasing sea temperatures and nutrient pollution are expected to lead to increased frequency and severity of marine cyanobacterial blooms over the coming decades. A cyanotoxin produced by marine benthic cyanobacteria, lyngbyatoxin-a (LTA), has recently been detected for the first time in edible shellfish in New Zealand, originating from summer bloom events in 2022 and 2023 on Waiheke Island (Biessy et al, 2024). LTA accumulated in marine snails, rock oysters and cockles (Biessy et al, 2024). 
• Nutrients and trace metals from land – which could increase, with more extreme rain and the inundation and erosion of coastal landfills due to sea-level rise – can increase the abundance and toxicity of blooms (Rhodes & Smith, 2022). Nutrient enrichment has led to increases in the toxic algae Pseudo-nitzschia in the Firth of Thames (Safi et al, 2022). 
• Our wastewater networks are expected to experience more leaks, overflows and potential damage due to coastal erosion and flooding, exacerbated by climate change. This will contribute to the increasing contamination of coastal waters with faecal pathogens, heightening health risks for swimmers and shellfish gatherers and driving more frequent and extended closures of swimming and gathering sites (Coxon, 2024).  

Impacts on Māori cultural connections and knowledge systems

• Our marine environments are where Māori first encountered this land, settled and became tangata whenua. From coasts to oceans, marine environments are central to te ao Māori (a Māori worldview), whakapapa (ancestral ties) and cultural identity. This is reflected in significant cultural practices and relationships with many parts of our marine natural environments.
• Te ao Māori encompasses our oceans as living systems to which we are connected by whakapapa. Our marine environments are central to mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) and tikanga Māori (customs and protocols), passed on between generations. This is held and passed on through language, pūrākau (ancient narratives), tikanga, atua (deities), tīpuna (ancestors) and cultural practices such as waka voyaging, ocean navigation, and caring for and gathering of resources such as kaimoana (seafood) (see Our marine environment 2022).
• Many marine environments are experiencing pollution and degradation, with estuaries and coastal areas suffering from recurring events of poor water quality. These pressures are felt at place among whānau, hapū (subtribes), hapori (community) and iwi (tribes), impacting identity and wellbeing at a range of spatial and temporal scales (Kainamu & Rolleston-Gabel, 2023). For example, in areas connected to the iwi Ngāti Porou, the decline of the moana (ocean) is affecting access to beaches and kaimoana stocks, and therefore connection to place, knowledge and practices (Sustainable Seas Challenge, 2024).
• The incorporation of mātauranga Māori and tikanga Māori into marine monitoring, mapping and management frameworks can improve access to up-to-date, evidence-based decision-making. Further, it can strengthen the knowledge of and response to the impacts of change on local ecosystems and communities (Paul-Burke et al, 2020).
• Cultural monitoring and management practices such as rāhui (temporary prohibition or restriction) play an important role in Māori environmental management of key taonga species – for example, enhancing mahinga kai and sustaining mātauranga Māori (Parsons et al, 2024).
• Management strategies between local knowledge-holders and central government can use both knowledge systems for effective environmental outcomes to address degradation of biological and cultural identity (Bennett-Jones et al, 2022). Management approaches based in te ao Māori are often focused on wellbeing and vitality of the environment, and te ao Māori perspectives can contribute to driving environmental change towards a healthier state (Awatere et al, 2023).
• Decision-making that includes te ao Māori perspectives has flow-on effects, enabling Māori to continue to maintain, develop and share environmental mātauranga Māori, tikanga and other cultural practices (Hale et al, 2024).

Tikanga and cultural wellbeing are connected to our coasts and seas

• Tikanga and other cultural practices are expressed through relationships with community, place and the natural environment. In coastal and marine environments, tikanga is grounded in whakapapa and through various practices such as karakia (incantations), pure (cultural ceremony), manaakitanga (showing of hospitality) and kaitiakitanga (stewardship). These practices are connected to Māori cultural wellbeing, and the health of marine environments affects the wellbeing of these communities (Jackson et al, 2017).
• The decline of kaimoana taonga species (treasured seafood species) and their environments impacts iwi, hapū and hapori and their ability to show manaakitanga to guests and share mātauranga Māori. The ability to practise manaakitanga is fundamental to the maintenance of mana (prestige, authority) (Parsons et al, 2024). These impacts are detailed in the mahinga kai section and highlighted where relevant indigenous biodiversity impacts are mentioned.

Impacts on Māori seasonal knowledge and tohu

• Traditional ocean navigation is a part of Māori migration histories, exploration and connection to marine environments. Navigational knowledge holds mātauranga Māori of environmental indicators – the sun, stars, planets, winds, clouds, ocean movement and ecological patterns. Alongside the practices of waka voyaging, modes of cultural transmission such as karakia, pūrākau whakataukī (proverbs) and mōteatea (traditional sung poetry) can be used to recover traditional Māori navigational knowledge and help a new generation of Māori voyagers reconnect with their tīpuna (Barclay-Kerr, 2016; Harris et al, 2013).
• Waka ama and waka hourua (double-hulled canoes) are used for voyaging and are connected to identity, cultural revitalisation, and the intergenerational sharing of mātauranga Māori. Climate change is altering ocean conditions, reducing safe voyaging windows and affecting taonga species used as tohu (environmental indicators) in noninstrument navigation. These changes impact the ability for Māori and communities to undertake waka voyages and the transmission of navigational mātauranga Māori (McDonald, 2022).
• Over time, Māori have built extensive knowledge about local weather and climate – vital to survival and incorporated into traditional and modern practices such as agriculture, fishing and conservation. The iwi Te Whānau-ā-Apanui has long held that there are six seasons and characterises their local climate in this way to assist in making decisions about timing, safety and viability of various activities (King & Skipper, 2006).
• Cultural monitoring of indigenous biodiversity uses tohu to inform harvesting activities. Changes in tohu are being tracked in marine environments to signal challenges such as development, environmental degradation and fish population decline. For example, rōpū (groups or organisations) in Whangārei-Te-Rerenga-Parāoa (Whangārei Harbour) are using 11 tohu to monitor the state of the harbour and explore how ecological and Māori knowledge systems and approaches can align to address complex scenarios involving multiple pressures and values in estuarine systems (Parsons et al, 2024).
• Changes in local climates are causing tohu to change. This affects planting, daily decisionmaking, and activities like resource gathering and hunting (Skipper, 2018). However, understanding and monitoring tohu as they change over time can help in managing and adapting activities sensitive to climate conditions (King et al, 2005). In Ōhiwa Harbour, overabundance of sea stars (a predator of mussels and shellfish) was considered a temporary tohu of degradation of mussel and shellfish populations. Trials were undertaken using quantitative methods to investigate predation pressure of sea stars on the mussel population, using mātauranga Māori alongside western science (Paul-Burke et al, 2022).
• The decline of taonga cultural keystone species such as pāua (Haliotis iris) will have intergenerational impacts. Pāua plays an important role in manaakitanga, and is of spiritual importance, with shells that have been used in ceremonies and toi Māori (Māori arts), and as items of trade and jewellery for generations. Indigenous use of pāua is at risk, due to declining populations as a result of years of overfishing, poaching and habitat degradation (Ryder et al, 2023). Many taonga species have been gathered over generations and are connected to traditional Māori practices, such as mahinga kai and rongoā (healing). They are central to the intergenerational transmission of knowledge – including knowledge about the sustainable use and protection of these taonga species and their associated ecosystems (Awatere et al, 2021; Harmsworth & Awatere, 2013; Smith, 2011).

Reduction in mahinga kai affects cultural identity and connections to the environment

• The harvesting of kaimoana such as pāua is culturally significant for Māori and is connected to many areas of cultural health. Degradation of habitats and populations of cultural keystone species has negative impacts on the ability of Māori to access and harvest kaimoana, resulting in a loss of cultural identity and connection to the environment (Ryder et al, 2023).
• Declines in kuku/kūtai (green-lipped mussels) in soft-bottomed harbours are due to sedimentation, predation, harvesting, climate change, pollution and legacy impacts (Paul-Burke et al, 2022).
• In coastal locations, such as in the rohe (territory/boundaries) of Heretaunga, Hawke’s Bay region, increased sedimentation has been changing some areas from sandy to muddy. This affects kaimoana, including cockles, pipi, scallops, snapper, kina (sea urchins) and seaweeds, as well as people’s ability to interact with these significant areas (Hayden et al, 2023).
• Human-driven pressure through harvesting by commercial, recreational and customary fishers is having an impact on waterways, with increased exposure to environmental degradation through land run-off and pollution. This is affecting the health of key taonga species including kina, kōura (crayfish), kūtai and pāua (Paul-Burke et al, 2020). For example, observation has shown significant declines in kūtai populations and traditional mahinga kai locations in Ōhiwa Harbour (Bulmer et al, 2024b).
• Non-indigenous species may threaten significant mahinga mātaitai (seafood-gathering) sites and pose a major threat to other ecologically and culturally valued marine environments. This has recently been observed with the incursions of seaweeds (Caulerpa brachypus and Caulerpa parvifolia) (von Ammon et al, 2023).

Livelihoods from marine primary industries are at risk from a changing environment and climate

• Fisheries and aquaculture contribute to national and local economies. In 2023, fisheries and aquaculture employed 14,580 people and directly contributed an estimated $1.1 billion (0.3 percent) of New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) (Stats NZ, 2025a). Activity in the marine economy leads to further economic activity in non-marine industries. These indirect, or induced, estimates are also included in the marine economy account. For fisheries and aquaculture, this value is $1.1 billion (Stats NZ, 2025a).
• Climate change is already affecting some species and ecosystems that are important for aquaculture and wild-caught fisheries (see section 1 and section 2), and these changes affect their productivity. Marine heatwaves, for example, have caused substantial decreases in fish catch and large losses in farmed salmon and mussels (Ericson et al, 2023; Lacheheb et al, 2024; Muznebin et al, 2022; Salinger et al, 2019).
• The effects of climate change present risks to the sustainability of some adversely affected fisheries, as well as presenting opportunities for other fisheries that become more productive in warming waters. Warming sea temperatures and ocean acidification may reduce the growth rate of some species such as shellfish (including flat oysters, green-lipped mussels and pāua) and blue cod and other large fish species (Behrens et al, 2025; Brough et al, 2023; Cummings et al, 2021; Lavin et al, 2022; Lundquist et al, 2023). Conversely, ocean warming and marine heatwaves are likely to increase the abundance of some fish such as snapper and trevally – to a point, as these increases are likely to reverse if temperatures become too warm (Cook et al, 2025; Lacheheb et al, 2024; Mediodia et al, 2024).
• Changes in the migration and distribution of fish populations due to changing ocean temperatures will affect fisheries (Cummings et al, 2021; Datta et al, 2024). Quota ownership is limited to specific management areas, posing a challenge for quota management if fish populations shift. This would have implications for Māori commercial fisheries, which hold about one-third of the interests in New Zealand (Hudson, 2022). For example, warming south of the Chatham Islands since 2006 has placed the region in almost perpetual marine heatwave conditions, and could have implications for the orange roughy and hoki fisheries in the area (Sutton et al, 2024; see section 1).
• Diseases pose a major threat to the aquaculture industry. Further threats from human factors – like climate change, invasive species and pollution – add a layer of complexity (Lane et al, 2022). For example, experiments have shown indigenous green-lipped mussels are vulnerable to infections or other stressors such as harmful algal blooms (Ericson et al, 2023; Greenough et al, 2025), and they have poorer health at warmer temperatures (Azizan et al, 2023; Ericson et al, 2023; Kozal et al, 2024).
• Direct economic losses from two invasive species, the Mediterranean tubeworm (Sabella spallanzanii) and the clubbed tunicate (Styela clava), on green-lipped mussel aquaculture are estimated to be $26.4 million over a 24-year period. The related social costs are estimated at $10.7 million over the same period (Soliman & Inglis, 2018). Slowing the spread of the pests, reducing densities and enhancing the premium market position of green-lipped mussels could significantly mitigate these potential impacts.
• ‘Milky white flesh syndrome’ in New Zealand snapper is expected to become more frequent with warming seas. This syndrome was first documented in the Hauraki Gulf in 2019 and has since become markedly more common off the north-eastern coast of the North Island. It describes snapper that are chronically malnourished and have pale flesh with a ‘mushy’ texture. It has already affected commercial fisheries, with caught fish securing lower prices or being rejected entirely, and could significantly disrupt New Zealand’s largest snapper fishery (Johnson et al, 2024). 
• Important commercial and customary fishing species, such as kōura, hoki and pāua, are at risk from warming seas, invasive species, diseases and sedimentation (Awatere et al, 2021; Johnson et al, 2024; King et al, 2010; PMCSA, 2021).
• The transmission of ostreid herpesvirus type 1 (a virus affecting oyster feeding, swimming and survival) in New Zealand had a dramatic impact on Pacific oyster farming, causing up to 100 percent mortality in spat and a 70 percent drop in market-sized oyster production between 2010 and 2012. The outbreak led to bankruptcies of some businesses, farm closures and job losses – particularly affecting rural communities. In Northland, the industry had supported 336 full-time equivalent jobs and contributed $19 million to the regional economy. The closure of one processing facility alone resulted in 66 redundancies, with smaller businesses suffering the most due to their limited resources and inability to adapt quickly (Fuhrmann et al, 2019). After entering a waterway, the virus can become endemic, resulting in seasonally recurrent outbreaks of disease (Fuhrmann et al, 2023).
• Shellfish parasites Bonamia exitiosa and Bonamia ostreae have both had impacts on flat oyster (Ostrea chilensis) populations. Bonamia exitiosa has caused significant long-term declines in wild flat oyster populations in Foveaux Strait. Commercial harvests dropped sharply following major mortality events in the late 1980s and early 1990s, resulting in fishery closures in this area to allow the oyster population to rebuild. This resulted in reduced income for quota holders, processors and associated businesses (Cranfield et al, 2005). After Bonamia ostreae was detected in Marlborough Sounds in 2015, national restrictions were placed on flat oyster movements. Subsequently, in 2017, all flat oyster farms in New Zealand were de-populated and farming was stopped (Hilton et al, 2025).

Environmental pressures impact the Māori economy and Māori fisheries settlements

• Marine environmental degradation linked to human pressures is resulting in the depletion of fish stocks, which directly affects Māori fisheries and the wider Māori economy (Rout et al, 2019). These environmental pressures also directly affect customary and commercial fishing practices, reducing the health of key taonga species and disrupting mahinga kai and kaitiakitanga practices (see Our marine environment 2022).
• Māori fisheries settlements, customary rights and participation in the commercial seafood sector are established through the Treaty of Waitangi. The future of customary fishing is at risk due to degradation of marine environments, impacting iwi Māori involved in fisheries settlements. Current pressures on fisheries impact customary fishing rights, as they limit opportunities for food gathering, weaken community ties, destabilise traditions and diminish connection to the environment (Bennett-Jones et al, 2022).

Tourism is at risk from a changing environment and climate

• Tourism contributes to our national and local economies. In 2023, marine tourism and recreation employed an estimated 1,605 people and directly contributed an estimated $120 million to New Zealand’s GDP. These are only partial estimates, due to limited data availability (Stats NZ, 2025a).
• Activity in the marine economy leads to wider economic activity in non-marine industries, which amounted to an estimated $93 million in 2023 (Stats NZ, 2025a).
• In the year to March 2024, tourism was New Zealand’s second-largest export earner, with only selected primary exports having a higher value. International tourists contributed $16.9 billion of the total tourism expenditure of $44.4 billion, and the tourism sector employed 303,420 people – with 182,727 of those people directly employed in tourism (Stats NZ, 2025b).
• The natural environments that have supported the tourism industry, and the infrastructure that allows us to access and enjoy them, are at increasing risk. For example, under one tourism climate change scenario, in which there is a disorderly reaction to climate change, with little policy action until 2030, projected risks include some coastal roads and popular visitor journeys being damaged intermittently. This scenario could result in unreliable visitor experiences, total loss of some experiences, and increased health and safety concerns for operators (The Aotearoa Circle, nd).