Climate change projections
Climate change is already happening in New Zealand and around the world. In the future climate change is likely to have an even more significant impact on our environment, our way of life and how we make a living.
Climate projections are based on a set of datasets that tell us what the future climate might look like. Decisions about how we adapt to climate change needs can be based on this information about our exposure to these impacts at varying degrees of global warming.
NIWA climate projections datasets
NIWA have recently completed an update of the national climate projections for Aotearoa New Zealand. This data provides us with information about key climate variables such as:
- temperature
- rainfall
- wind
- drought
It can show how they might change into the future. For example, what might average temperatures look like in Invercargill in 50 years, or how much rainfall could we expect in Taranaki by 2100.
The core public dataset for this project is now available.
These projections were created using six global models, published as part of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report in 2021, and downscaled to provide New Zealand specific projections at a 5km grid.
Read further information on updated national climate projections for Aotearoa New Zealand [NIWA].
Future tranches will include access to derived datasets, insights, and a geospatial map viewer.
The climate projections data is freely accessible under license and subject to an acceptable use policy. By accessing the data products you are agreeing to these terms. It is your responsibility to respect the licensing terms that apply.
We will shortly be publishing a geospatial tool to display the climate projections data on a map. This will include insights into the data. This tool and initial insights will be available in late July 2024.
The Ministry is also working with NIWA to release SSP5-8.5 projections by the end of 2024, alongside additional data products and insights published by the Ministry.
This work has been funded by the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment and delivered by NIWA, the Ministry for the Environment, and Climate Data Initiative. For further information please contact the Climate Data Initiative team.