Projections for NZ ETS units

Details of the request

Pursuant to the OIA, I request:

Projections of the future flow of units under the ETS. It is understood that the projections will depend on the scenario assumptions and I request in particular the following:

a) Projections that show the numbers of units issued and surrendered under MFE’s default assumptions (whatever it may have selected).

b) Projections that show modelled scenarios of the units issued and surrendered as a result of varying the NZU price, either directly through adjustments to the cap/floor, or indirectly through quantitative controls on the number of NZUs newly issued.

c) Projections that show modelled scenarios of the units issued and surrendered as a result of uncertainty about forestry planting and harvest rates.

d) Projections that show modelled scenarios of the units issued and surrendered as a result of different surrender requirements for the agriculture sector.

e) Projections that show modelled scenarios of the units issued and surrendered as a result of different surrender requirements for sectors other than agriculture.

For each of items b) to e), I am seeking at least a representative sample of the scenarios modelled and a list of the other related scenarios modelled.

For each of the above projections requested, I seek year by year estimates out to 2050, and a breakdown of the inward and outward flow of units by category for each year.

ministerials@mfe.govt.nz